One of the oldest (and most reliable) cliches about the fog of war is that “truth is the first casualty of war.” That’s always been true. Certainly, this is no less true in the present conflict in Ukraine. In fact, the level and quality of media coverage are nothing less than hysterical. And mendacious.
How mendacious? Let us count the ways: (1) the Ghost of Kiev, (2) the 13 defiant sailors, (3) the laughable cut-outs of Ukrainian soldiers, (4) endless photos of Ukrainians carrying rifles (which really weren’t rifles), (5) Miss Ukraine who posed with a rifle on the front lines –back in 2015, and so on. That’s just the tip of the iceberg. Soon, we’ll have a whole catalogue of poorly executed Ukrainian propaganda to feast on.
So where are we?
Well, first of all, it must be said that the Russians are losing the informational war, no doubt about it. It’s positively stunning to see how quickly, unanimously, and uncritically world opinion has turned against Russia. There have been massive demonstrations of russophobia throughout the world. Economically, Russia and the Russian people have taken a massive hit as well. For now. These are two areas in which the situation is far more fluid than we are led to believe.
More will be written about these in the very near future. Today, I want to comment on the military and geopolitical situation.
Militarily, the Russian Federation is winning. Many critics assume that because Putin hadn’t wrapped this up in 72 hours, all is lost as far as Russia is concerned. Unfortunately, these same critics are unaware that the present military doctrine of the Russian Federation is to attack in two phases: the first is the “soft war”, to slowly encircle the enemy; the second phase the Cauldron, when they unleash their full might.
This is the opposite of “shock and awe.” Its purpose is to not only minimize casualties but to allow regular combatants a chance to surrender. It also provides an escape route for civilians. This is actually quite humane. Another aspect of this phase of warfare is to minimize damage to the infrastructure, thereby allowing the new government which arises (and one will) the resources necessary to rebuild and maintain order.
This can’t be stressed enough. By going “soft,” it gives the political establishment the time necessary to recalculate their intentions. This goes all the way back to Sun Tzu, who sagely advised that it’s always a good idea to allow your enemy an escape route. He was speaking about military strategy but it applies to political exigencies as well. As von Clausewitz said, “War is the continuation of politics by other means.”
Putin is now getting ready to begin Phase Two. This is the Cauldron.
This is the military situation at present:
The Cauldron is an encirclement of the opposing forces. It not only restricts their range of motion, it cuts them off from the political authority. It also strangles their re-supply lines, thereby attriting their war-fighting capabilities. But this is where it gets really ugly in that it makes surrender with honor more difficult. While this will probably cause many Ukrainian defenders to fight all the harder, it will also encourage many to simply “slip away” from the field of battle, once they realize that the battle is lost.
Things can get really dicey here because many of the defenders are Ukronazi elements (Pravy Sektor and the Azov Battalion for instance) to fight harder. The reason is because one of Putin’s stated aims is to “denazify” the Ukraine and there is every reason to believe that the Russians will give no quarter to these elements.
In any event, in looking at this particular map, it’s clear to see the formation of new political boundaries for the Ukraine, one that is in Russia’s favor:
As to Russia’s immediate military objectives, they have already been achieved. Not only have the two break-away republics in the eastern part of the Ukraine been liberated but the Russian army is very close to forming a land bridge to the Crimea, essentially closing off most of Ukraine’s access to the Black Sea. Once Mariupul is taken, then the Sea of Azov will be a “Russian Lake.” (It’s an open question as to whether the Russians will go all the way to Odessa, which if they do so, will make Ukraine a land-locked nation.)
Presently, both Kiev and Kharkiv remain unconquered but both have been encircled, finding themselves in the midst of two separate Cauldrons. In any event, significant parts of the Ukraine are in Russian hands. This gives them an excellent position to dictate terms to the Ukrainian leadership when the negotiations begin. As for the rah-rah virtue-signaling in the West, both President Biden and NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg have put a stop to further arms shipments. The Poles for example were quietly told to not ship any fighter jets to the Ukrainian air force. Bulgaria has likewise backed down. Even though both countries were “all aboard” with helping Zelensky’s air force.
They have also informed President Zelinsky that he must begin negotiations with President Putin and that they “are OK with Ukrainian neutrality.” I imagine that cooler heads will prevail in Sweden and Finland as to their threats to join NATO. (The Russians have the Cauldron, we have Kabul, choose wisely.) Especially now that it’s obvious that Biden and Stoltenberg never had any intention of coming to Ukraine’s aid in the first place. This must be painful to Zelensky, now that he is coming to the realization that he was being set up all along. What is he going to do now that he needlessly poked the Bear and, in the process, sacrificed his country? If he has a conscience, he should throw himself to the mercy of his people.
As for the Ukrainian oligarchs, that’s another story. Because they hold multiple passports, they bugged out within 24 hours. Now they can while away the remainder of their lives counting their dollars in Cyprus and Israel. As for the Ukrainian people, maybe they’ll come to their senses and stop electing clowns to the Rada. It’s possible.
For a very succinct military analysis, please take the time to watch this latest vlog from Dr Steve Turley:
And let us pray for the speedy resolution to this conflict. Because as I said to a dear Ukrainian friend several years ago: “The Americans will gladly fight to the last Ukrainian.”
“Not your wingman.” That’s gotta hurt.
https://www.breitbart.com/europe/2022/03/03/not-your-wingman-western-nations-deny-plans-to-provide-fighter-jets-to-ukraine/
George,
Thanks for posting this. I feel like I’m becoming at least a little more informed. I do have a couple questions though.
1. What was the last straw? Obviously US/NATO has been working on Ukraine for awhile and Russia didn’t do anything. What was the thing that really set this particular military engagement off?
2. What is Putin’s deal? This gentleman said Putin does not want our globalist agenda in Russia, and who can blame him? But there’s this whole narrative out there that Putin is a sociopath (basically). Ex-KGB, killer, etc etc etc. Are these criticisms fair? If so, why does Putin care about the godless Western expansion? Is it just about maintaining their sense of normality? Or does he really believe in the traditional Orthodox values, and the West’s criticisms of him just simply unfair?
The last straw was the day before the invasion, when Zelensky said that he would even be open to the placement NATO missiles in his country.
A very close second would be the increased bombardment of the Luhansk & Donetsk republics. With heavy civilian casualties. Ultimately though, Ukraine was a failed state. Zelensky won the presidency with 75& of the vote and was losing to lose it by a similar amount. He was massively unpopular. He had zero power, that belonged to the Ukronazis on the street. Even though they’re a minority, they are brutal and nobody can stand up to them. If Zelensky didn’t pull the trigger/listen to his Western puppeteers and Ukraine kept plodding along, it would have completely imploded.
A war like this could have bought him some international sympathy and local popularity. In other words, his back (and Ukraine’s) back was against the wall. So like a cornered rat, he threw the dice.
Yeah, who knows how Ukraine’s politics would have turned out with no current conflict. And what would implosion look like? Zelensky, losing popularity, would lose at his next election, but the parties there could just appoint a new, unpopular leader as the most popular choice out of unpopular options. That is, if given a choice between 5 unpopular candidates who don’t fix Ukraine’s economy, Ukrainians could elect the most popular one. After 2014, people had tried to protest things about the new government that came to power in 2014 in a way analogous to how people had protested Yanukovych in the 2014 Maidan. Yet the new Kyiv government drove those “Maidan II” protestors away successfully.
Let me put it another way. The two main open goals of the Maidan movement were to get Ukraine to sign the EU’s trade offer and to stop corruption. When the Maidan protest was strong, people considered what would happen if the new post-Maidan government had corruption like Yanukovych’s did. And their answer was that they would do a second Maidan. However, when the new governments came to power after the 2014 Maidan was successful, there was no new successful Maidan. The new government lost popularity, but when Ukrainians came to protest the new government, they were driven away successfully.
A defender of the post-Maidan order might think that those post-Maidan protestors were pro-Russian. And for all I knew, maybe some were. That would make sense. However, nonetheless logic demands a different expectation for what would naturally happen. Since the post-Maidan government lost popularity, and economic failure, complaints, and corruption continued, it’s only natural that some of the same hundreds of thousands (or millions?) of people who had protested in “Maidan I” would take to the streets and keep doing “their thing”. Yet what happened to them? Were they still standing, even thousands strong, for years afterwards? They were swept away by the new government forces.
So I am trying to answer how the country could have imploded. Certainly it would not have turned into a pro-Russian faction taking over. That one is already in Donbass, and the leadership’s unpopularity hasn’t translated to any pro-Russian outlook. Right Sector and oligarchs still seem to have limited, but significant power, and months ago, about half the population still wanted EU and NATO (at this point it’s probably more as a reaction over the new conflict). This is why the most likely event in an “implosion” would seem to have been either another unpopular leader being elected, or else a Right Sector type leader taking power, as probably was already the case in the wake of the 2014 Maidan.
Ukraine was a failed state? It was a fragile state, yes, but not a failed state. The 2021 Fragile State Index listed Ukraine as number 91, about on par with Mexico, number 90:
https://fragilestatesindex.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/fsi2021-report.pdf
…or for a better format of the same information:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_Fragile_States_Index#cite_note-5
well, what would you call a State in which the president does not control the central government? In other words, in which armed gangs (like Pravy Sektor) are the ones which call the shots? So much so that they are the ones who have effectively killed the Minsk Accords all the while of actually killing 14,000 Ukrainian civilians in the East?
What would you call a State in which your “president” was put in place by a coup launched from another State? Or where the VP of that second State demanded that your top governmental prosecutor gets fired unless he does “X”?
What would you call a State that according to the OECD is ranked the “most corrupt” in Europe? One that approaches African levels of corruption?
And that’s just the tip of the iceberg.
Now please understand, I have nothing against the Ukrainian people. Absolutely nothing at all. I will even excuse the Galicians in the West who venerate Stephan Bandera. If they want to secede from Kiev and form an independent Banderastan, have at it. But I have far more sympathy for the Ukrainians who are Orthodox.
Despite the massive amounts of propaganda in the West, what is little known is how the regular Ukrainian military is being non-confrontational (even surrendering to the Russians), how the cities that are liberated by the Russians are being turned over to Ukrainian civilian control, how the Ukronazi elements are using Ukrainian civilians as human shields, how both Ukrainian and Russian scientists are taking control of the nuclear power plants, and so on.
Excuse the ramble, but I believe that the first two paragraphs are the very definition of a failed state. (Bearing in mind that several other States are somewhere along the continuum of 1 to 5 as described by Dmitri Orlov. (That includes Russia and the U.S. Been to Chiraq lately?)
1. Putin had issued two sets of ultimatums regarding Russia’s security vis a vis NATO, one to NATO and one to the US. Basically, he demanded that there be no further expansion of NATO and that all weapons systems be rolled back to what was extant in 1997 before the eastward expansion commenced in force after the West had given assurances to the contrary. The US and NATO thumbed their noses at these demands.
At the same time, the Ukrainian military escalated its operations in the Donbas, seemingly being egged on by the West creating a refugee and humanitarian crisis or, I should rather say, exacerbating one seriously. At that point, the Donetsk and Lugansk republics again requested formal recognition from the Russian Federation and obtained it.
That was the first “last straw”. Before that, Russia had been committed to maintaining the two regions as part of Ukraine, but autonomous, along the lines of the Minsk Accords which the Ukrainians resisted and the West never pressured them to implement. That is the thing to understand: Putin was not going to invade until the uptick in persecution in the Donbas and the request for recognition by the two regional governments. He had not specified what measures he would take to obtain his security guarantees if they were rebuffed. Up to that point he was begging everyone to implement Minsk.
So he began a limited invasion of the Donbas to assist the leaders of that region in securing their newly recognized republics. And then Zelensky did something monumentally stupid which will, in retrospect, be remembered as the real cause of this war by honest historians. At the Munich security conference, Zelensky stated that Ukraine was withdrawing from the agreement it made at the time it surrendered its nuclear weapons since its security was not being assured pursuant to that agreement. Translation, Zelensky was pursuing the acquisition of nuclear weapons for the “defense” of the Ukrainian state.
That is when Vladimir Putin decided he had had enough and launched the full invasion of the eastern 2/3 of the Ukraine. That is why you see these stories about Russian military securing nuclear plants pursuant to their invasion. Some of these plants are capable of producing fissionable material. A college physics student can design a thermonuclear device. What keeps them from being widely proliferated is control of high grade “yellow cake”, the actual explosive.
2. Putin is a Russian political leader. That is a different political animal than the political leaders of Western democracies. In Western democracies, politics is a sport. Theoretically, the victory of one candidate over others is not a big deal. Everybody’s a good sport, congratulates the winner and goes home to run another day.
In Russia, historically, politics has been full on combat. Russians aren’t “nice” about political power. It’s too important. Were the real power held by oligarchs as it is in the West, it might be different. Here, usually anyone allowed to run is already a member of the club and, increasingly, the elections have been predetermined anyway.
In Russia, a populist leader rising against Putin is the equivalent of a challenger to the throne of a king. No Russian leader can allow that. The stability of the state is at stake. The only populist leaders that could arise there would be backed by Western powers for the propagation of Western interests through NGO’s etc. That is the case with, for example, Navalny. The population there is homogenous enough and Putin is successful enough at spreading the take among the leadership and people down to the local level that his position is not in question. His popularity hovers around 70 percent. In times of crisis, it might be higher.
Now, it is true that Putin served in the KGB and headed the FSB which is the Russian equivalent of the FBI. If you wanted a career in state security, which Putin aspired to from a young age seeing TV programs glorifying such service, KGB was where you wanted to work. He worked in the Berlin office evaluating and responding to Western propaganda (which is pretty good training for his present position).
Does he poison his enemies? Possibly, but I doubt it. All of that stuff to me smells like either CIA psyops or the recreational pursuits of ex-intelligence operatives either loyal to Putin taking out his enemies or anti-Putin trying to make him look bad. I don’t think he’s above that sort of thing. That’s not what I’m saying. Again, in Russia, politics is combat. However, the only reason I could think of for him to do such a thing would be if he wanted it to be sloppy and conspicuous as a terroristic deterrent to disaffected Russians abroad spreading disinformation about him (such as accusations of pedophilia, for example). I could see him doing that. But it seems to me that it would better serve his purpose not to do it out in front of God and everybody but to simply make it look like his enemies suddenly got fatally unlucky. That way those who would need to know would know and be deterred without the gaudy public spectacle.
Either way, I think he is a sincere Orthodox Christian. His offhand comments regarding, for example, his belief in the afterlife indicate to me that he actually believes it. Otherwise, I don’t think he would bother to pretend. One can look at his personal displays of piety either way: as genuine or as duties of the head of state of an Orthodox country. However, for example, he also took the time and opportunity to visit Mt. Athos, which is inexplicable unless he is either a) sincere or b) oddly preoccupied with creating an impression that does not benefit him much particularly.
A lot to unpack.
It is unsurprising that some of the same people who only around two weeks ago were saying things like (direct quote): “Russia is withdrawing. Russia was never going to invade Ukraine. Ever.” are now making equally strong statements about how Russia is going to prosecute the invasion and how it is going to go. These people really owe Joe Biden an apology. An “I’m sorry Brandon” would suffice.
One can already chart a future evolution from “Russia would never hurt the Ukraianian people” to “Those babuskhas were probably nazis and had it coming”
I don’t agree with all of it, but this is a good enough summary of what has happened and what likely going to happen next to stand in for several paragraphs:
https://samf.substack.com/p/russias-plan-c?s=r
We have already entered into the “level Ukrainian cities” stage. Russia has likely already burned through much of their PGM stocks. But they have lots and lots of artillery and MLRS. Ukraine doesn’t have the ability to stop it. And it’s impossible to get all the civilians out. The death toll is going to be catastrophic.
It makes sense to think of the invasion in three parts at the moment:
First, in the east, those are established lines, and it’s still pretty static at this stage, especially since those aren’t the axis Russia is making their big offensive pushes: in the south, out of Crimea/Black Sea and in the north, from Russia and Belarus.
In the south, things are going closest to plan for Russia, although the progress is slower than expected. The defensive terrain to counter troops coming out of Crimea is less than ideal and Ukraine didn’t even try to contest much until the Dnieper. Russia is succeeding in objectives to link up Crimea, and in the coming days will likely control access to the Ukrainian coast. All this at the cost of heavy casualties, none of those coastal or river cities are giving up without a fight.
In the north, well, I did not expect Kyiv to last a week, but here we are. Russia is very likely going to be able to encircle and besiege it in the coming weeks. But at incredible cost. Ukraine appears to be doing a good job using its limited strike resources and SOF teams to concentrating on disrupting and destroying supply elements. Russia should be able to overcome this, but the amount of destroyed, captured or abandoned equipment is literally jaw-dropping.
As an aside, this is more accurate visual representation of the state of the invasion at the beginning of the day, Ukraine isn’t small:
https://twitter.com/Nrg8000/status/1499384684807323656
Grim days ahead. I wholeheartedly condemn the Russian invasion of Ukraine. It seems few here on Monomakhos are inclined to do so. Like it or not, you’ve picked a side for what happens next.
RE: “It is unsurprising that some of the same people who only around two weeks ago were saying things like (direct quote): “Russia is withdrawing. Russia was never going to invade Ukraine. Ever.”
Actually, that quote came from a comment on a story written in May 2020, if Google is to be believed, which begs the question, why do you have to smear someone to make your point?
What turned out to be an invasion didn’t have to be an invasion. The Ukrainian Government could have saved its people but the people aren’t all that important to them. If they were, they could have bought them some time and they didn’t.
You’ve always condemned Russia and now you’re saying it’s because of Ukraine? Oh, please.
I’m directly quoting your comment from February 16th 2022 not May 2020, I’m surprised you don’t remember a comment so recent:
https://www.monomakhos.com/did-alexandria-just-blink/#comment-186586
I would be interested in the answer to this point. Not that it matters much what I’m interested in!
Click on the link.
February 14 was when Biden first said the Russians had invaded Ukrainian which prompted my statement. The following day I looked at Monkeyworks and no military planes had entered Ukraine. Commercial air travel was light, but not restricted.
On February 16, I said, “So do you all believe me now?! Russia is withdrawing. Russia was never going to invade Ukraine. Ever.”
Russia did not “invade Ukraine.” Instead, they acknowledge the separatist groups, Donetsk and Luhansk, and ordered troops into these regions to keep the peace. No invasion of Ukraine.
These two areas, primarily populated by Russian-speaking people, who sympathize with Russia, experienced brutal fighting over the years (14,000 killed) at the hands of neo-Nazis that we’ve spoken about on this blog for many years; and announced their separation, which international law allows, in 2014.
It was only after February 16th, after Biden got tough and imposed all these sanctions and NATO began rattling their sabers that Russia tried to take out the Pentagon-operated (DTRA) bioweapon labs in Ukraine run by private contractors, which should surprise no one as they’re in China (as we know) Georgia, the Middle East, South East Asia, and Africa and I believe South America. I think they got 7 that were housed in Ukraine. They didn’t belong to Ukraine so no invasion yet.
It wasn’t until the 22nd, after there had been numerous provocations, that Russia when in, but that was not their initial intention. Russians do not hate Ukrainians. It is the neo-nazi’s in Ukraine that hate Russia, cannot be trusted, and are too dangerous to ignore. True to form, they’re using human shields and holing up in areas where civilians live.
I am NOT anti-Ukrainian people! I am anti-Ukrainian government. – Nor am I for or against Russia; however, I don’t blame the Russians for what they’re doing in Ukraine. I’m glad they took out the labs. I’m glad they’re standing up for the separatists. I am sorry the neo-natzis are using the Ukrainian people and at this point, I wish Russia would go in there and put an end to their suffering by getting rid of their crooked government officials and their neo-natzi nationalists.
Biden did not say the Russians invaded Ukraine on February 14. Biden spent the weeks prior to the invasion warning that Russia was making preparations to invade. That is not the same thing. Shortly before Russia actually invaded the USG started indicating they believed Putin had made the decision to invade. Again, not the same thing as declaring someone has actually invaded.
There was idle speculation of a February 16 target date that went around, but that was not any kind of official pronouncement by the US government.
On February 21st, Putin announced recognition of the independence of Donetsk and Luhansk and ordered the deployment of troops to them. This resulted in a round of sanctions against Russia being announced on February 22nd.
On February 24, Russia launched a multi-axis full-scale invasion of Ukraine. There were no biolabs. There is no nuclear weapons program. It is widely believed the recorded speech Putin gave announcing the start of the war was recorded on the 21st, at the same time as his speech recognizing Donetsk and Luhansk.
Launching an invasion of 150,000+ solders is not something done in a snap decision. It will take some time to know for sure, but it is likely Putin greenlit the invasion plan that was used, a full invasion of Ukraine, in January. People eventually write memoirs.
Of course, it could have been called off immediately had the Clown of Kiev not stated his intentions for inclusion of the Ukraine into NATO and the introduction of nuclear missiles into that country.
Now this leads us with three possibilities;
1. Zelensky is a clown who took Biden/EU/NATO seriously,
2. Zelensky is not a clown but a daredevil who realized that he had zero control over the central government, was hugely unpopular, was going to be either defeated in the next election or assassinated by the crazies, or
3. This was a carefully-orchestrated operation from soup to nuts. Zelensky, Putin, the EU were working hand-in-hand to bring things to a head regarding the world financial system (i.e. the Great Reset) and used the Ukraine as their staging area. That’s a rabbit hole I’d rather leave alone for the time being.
One of the unintended (?) consequences of this conflict is the diminution of anti-white wokeness in the West. The support of the Ukrainian refugees and resistance, has increased racial and nationalistic awareness in the West.
Your fundamental premise is invalid. The idea of NATO basing nuclear armed missiles in Ukraine is patently absurd, for multiple reasons. The top three really should be apparent to you.
What’s the citation for Zelensky stating that intention for nuclear missiles, anyway?
Nate,
The Pentagon has bio-labs in Ukraine. The DoD Defense Threat Reduction Agency (DTRA) has funded 11 bio-laboratories in the former Soviet Union Country Ukraine, bordering on Russia. They work with the Ministry of Health in Ukraine.
Among the set of bilateral agreements between the US and Ukraine is the establishment of the Science and Technology Center in Ukraine (STCU) – an International organization funded mainly by the US government which has been accorded diplomatic status.
The STCU officially supports projects of scientists previously involved in the Soviet biological weapons program. Over the past 20 years, the STCU has invested over $285 million in funding and managing some 1,850 projects of scientists who previously worked on the development of weapons of mass destruction.
https://southfront.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/1-22.png?x17560
Black & Veatch Special Project Corp. was awarded $198.7 million DTRA contracts to build and operate bio-laboratories in Ukraine (under two 5-year contracts in 2008 and 2012 totaling $128.5 million), as well as in Germany, Azerbaijan, Cameroon, Thailand, Ethiopia, Vietnam and Armenia.
Metabiota has been awarded a $18.4 million federal contract under the program in Georgia and Ukraine. This US company was also contracted to perform work for the DTRA before and during the Ebola crisis in West Africa, the company was awarded $3.1 million (2012-2015) for work in Sierra Leone .
Southern Research Institute has been a prime subcontractor under the DTRA program in Ukraine since 2008. The company was also a prime Pentagon contractor in the past under the US Biological Weapons Program for research and development of bio-agents with 16 contracts between 1951 and 1962.
https://southfront.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/1-20.png?x17560
https://southfront.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/2-7.png?x17560
https://southfront.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/3-1.png?x17560
https://southfront.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/4.png?x17560
https://southfront.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/5.png?x17560
https://southfront.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/6.png?x17560
https://southfront.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/7.png?x17560
https://southfront.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/8.png?x17560
https://southfront.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/10.png?x17560
https://southfront.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/11.png?x17560
Ukraine has no control over the military bio-laboratories on its own territory. According to the 2005 Agreement between the US DoD and the Ministry of Health of Ukraine the Ukrainian government is prohibited from public disclosure of sensitive information about the US program and Ukraine is obliged to transfer to the US Department of Defense (DoD) dangerous pathogens for biological research.
The Pentagon has been granted access to certain state secrets of Ukraine in connection with the projects under their agreement.
https://southfront.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/1-21.png?x17560
https://southfront.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/2-8.png?x17560
It goes on and on.
https://www.shadowtruth.org/us-bioweapon-labs-in-ukraine-what-will-russia-find/
Nate, why don’t we let Robert Service answer your question:
Did Ukraine’s trolling for membership in NATO trigger Putin’s war?
Friday’s Wall Street Journal writes:
“The Russian invasion of Ukraine resulted from two immense strategic blunders, (Russian historian) Robert Service says. The first came on Nov. 10, when the U.S. and Ukraine signed a Charter on Strategic Partnership, which asserted America’s support for Kyiv’s right to pursue membership in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization. The pact made it likelier than ever that Ukraine would eventually join NATO — an intolerable prospect for Vladimir Putin. ‘It was the last straw,’ Mr. Service says. Preparations immediately began for Russia’s so-called special military operation in Ukraine.”
I read the full article. It did not answer my question. Nuclear weapons were not mentioned anywhere. But since I did read the article, a few more quotes from Sessions from that article:
“In Mr. Putin’s cocksure reckoning, the invasion was going to be “a pushover—not just in regard to Ukraine, but in regard to the West.” He’d spent four years “running rings around Donald Trump, ” and he thought the retirement of German Chancellor Angela Merkel left the West rudderless. That set the scene for the “surprise he got when he invaded Ukraine, when he found that he’d inadvertently united the West—that what he’d done was the very opposite of what he wanted.” Mr. Service calls Mr. Putin “reckless and mediocre” and scoffs at the notion that he is “some sort of genius.” What kind of Russian leader, he asks, “makes it impossible for a German leader not to build up Germany’s armaments”?”
On scenarios of how the war might bring about Putin’s downfall he brings up parallels with….Beria. Big oof, as the kids say.
Not sure Negotiations are making headway. :’-(
The 1st Round of Negotiations were on February 28. This is sad news:
https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-news/hero-ukraine-peace-negotiator-shot-26398152
After the third set of negotiations, the Russian negotiators look sad, saying that there was no progress:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mULKBzvYI9I&ab_channel=%D0%98%D0%BD%D1%84%D0%BE%D1%80%D0%BC%D0%B0%D1%86%D0%B8%D0%BE%D0%BD%D0%BD%D0%BE%D0%B5%D0%B0%D0%B3%D0%B5%D0%BD%D1%82%D1%81%D1%82%D0%B2%D0%BE%D0%91%D0%B5%D0%BB%D0%A2%D0%90
Russian and Ukrainian officials have opposite versions on who is preventing civilians from evacuating Mariupol.
Well, it looks like Zelensky was evacuated. https://www.veteranstoday.com/2022/03/02/blockbuster-drag-queen-zelensky-found-a-billion-dollars-and-a-villa-in-miami/
Russia won’t be negotiating anything.
Given what you’ve just revealed, the Russians shouldn’t negotiate.
Zelensky is not only a degenerate clown, he’s a globalist. That seals it for me. I feel sorry for the Ukrainian people.
Lord have mercy.
The Russians do not look at negotiations the same way Americans do. Negotiations are simply another facet of the war effort. I.e., to say, they don’t see it as binary. They will fulfill their mission of demilitarization and denazification. That is non-negotiable.
However, in the interim, they wish to establish humanitarian corridors in order to evacuate all civilians and soldiers who wish to leave the “cauldrons”. This is with an eye at relocating all the die hards into the western part of what was once the Ukraine.
Moreover, reinforcing their hard line and presenting the other side with hard accurate facts of developments on the ground work toward weakening their will. The point is to create an atmosphere of futility and divide elements within the Zelensky government from the hard line neo-Nazi element which knows it must either fight to the death or flee.
There’s no danger of the Russians saying, “Oh, you wish to play nice now and be neutral? Fine, we will withdraw all our forces.” Not going to happen.
PS:
CRP is saying that Moscow is turning to insist that its export transactions be conducted in roubles. I can’t find anything else on this at this time, other than Russia insisting that its debts can be paid in roubles. If that occurs, it will significantly strengthen the rouble. If the West refuses, Moscow can always sell its oil to China (in roubles).
https://time.com/378/gates-slams-biden-in-memoir-reveals-he-nearly-quit/
https://www.cbs19news.com/story/42501205/barack-obama-reportedly-said-dont-underestimate-joes-ability-to-expletive-things-up
This catastrophe is all the Biden/Obama/Clinton crew: Jake Sullivan, Anthony Blinken, Susan Rice, etc.
How can the world refuse? We need their oil. We need the stuff our farmers put in the ground to grow food.
One reason it’s “impossible to get the civilians out” is because there are credible reports (like from the Vice Mayor of Lviv) that the Banderist elements are preventing the civilians from leaving. One of the untold stories about this war (which will come out) is the mandatory use of civilians as human shields.
A rule of thumb is that wherever there is a successful resistance in the metro areas by the Ukrainian forces, you can be sure that they’re hiding behind human shields.
In the cases of Syria and Kazakhstan, the Russian military was invited by those governments to battle against terrorism. Yet with this Ukraine invasion, there seems to be no invitation, neither by the Ukrainian government, nor the Church. Instead, it seems the Russians just invited themselves in.
With the annexation of Crimea, the argument provided by Russia was that its people democratically wanted to join the Russian Federation. The same could be said for Russia’s recognition of the separatists in Donbass.
Yet where is this present call for Russia to “liberate Ukraine” coming from? It doesn’t seem to be coming from Ukraine.
Not from the government of Ukraine, I’ll give you that.
When Zelensky decided to go for nukes and the West
(in Munich of all places!) did not rebuke him,
his goose was guaranteed to be cooked…
You have to wonder if he was set up to say that. It was just so on the nose that everyone had to have known that Russia would have done what they did
That would make sense.
In one interview online, someone asked Lavrov if the West might have lured Russia into the conflict. I recall Lavrov beginning his answer by saying that this might be the case. But his main reply was that Russia has to react to the situation that it’s faced with.
So one might conclude that Kyiv might have made plans with NATO to join NATO, and also made announcements about plans to get nukes, either because it was part of the longterm expansion of NATO, or because Russia was being lured into a conflict, or for some other reason. But Lavrov’s answer is that Russia still has to react to the situation that it’s dealt.
Personally I would like for Russia to have found a constructive, peaceful way out of the conflict. It looks like a tough situation for Russia because of a couple factors, one being the danger of nukes in Ukraine. It would be nice for the situation to be resolved in a safe, peaceful way for everyone.
Joseph, you raise good points. However there is a difference between the Donbas and the Crimea: the people of the Donbas have been suffering under constant shelling over the past 8 years,, to the tune of 14,000 dead.
All Kiev had to do was abide by the Minsk Accords. They chose not to.
Of course, this brings up another can of worms, and that is that Zelensky had zero control over the Pravy Sektor/Svoboda/neo-Nazis. Those guys controlled the street. In other words, he could not abide by Minsk even if he had wanted to. That would mean of course that the Ukraine is a failed state by every definition of the word.
That just sounds a lot like Mexico and its cartels. Mexico is fragile, but it’s not a failed state.
Very good point, Joseph However, one reason I suspect is that it’s not a “failed state” per se is because our Southern border is open and it relieves a lot of economic pressure. Mexico has the best of both worlds: it gets rid of its surplus population (thereby relieving its welfare outlays) and receives the economic windfall from these migrants who send $$$ back home.
On second thought, between the hyper-violence of the Cartels and the outward migration, I hardly think that the distinction between a “failed” state and a “fragile” state is all that great.
There is also the issue of the Constitutionality of the 2014 events.
Western leaders need to tell Zelensky to surrender. The west still has sanctions and other ways they can use to put pressure on Russia and Putin without the need for this hot war.
They could. They certainly could. But they haven’t. Wonder why that is. Maybe they don’t care about people. They sure didn’t care about us when they locked us up and tanked our economy, while people like Pelosi and Lighthouse got their hair done.
They don’t care about the people in Ukraine. They don’t care about Russia or Fauci’s biolabs, like the one he supported in Wuhan, which killed millions of people (the remedy, even worse).
Where was the CIA? Where was the CDC? Where was the FDA? And where was Biden?
Right where they wanted him to be. At the helm. They timed that vaccine to hit the population when Biden took over so that when the reality of what big Big Pharma was doing, i.e. killing us, began to sink in there was no one to say, “Now wait a minute. . .” Oh, they were there as in “present” but with their mouths zipped shut.
If we (this little blog) started talking about gain-of-function in July 2020, where were our Western Leaders and their high-tech agencies? We have none of the resources they have.
If we knew, THEY KNEW.
They didn’t care about millions of innocent people around the world that were sick and dying so why would they care about the people in Ukraine?
They don’t.
They care about making Russia look bad and they’ve been on this trip since the 2016 elections. Why? As an excuse to start a war. They’re tickled pink thinking Ukraine is their ticket in.
But the tables have turned. They’re too arrogant to entertain an alternative scenario where they lose. But it’s coming. Even if they accomplished all they set out to do, they miscalculated and this time it’s going to cost them.
Unlike Amos, you appear to be a prophet… and the daughter of a prophet, perhaps. I’ll wait for the other shoe to drop, Gail.
In the meantime, “Ouch!” I can handle only so much truth at a time because it hurts while the scales of ignorance and naiveté are falling from one’s eyes.
Yes, it’s best to go slow.
I know the feeling.
George,
There is something to be said for the original thesis offered in the actual movie, Wag the Dog. If you recall, DeNiro’s character gets picked up by the intelligence services and has to explain to them why he is faking the whole war thing. His point was that if there is no enemy, they lack any raison d’etre – certainly one that justifies their budget, resources and privileges. So the show must go on vis a vis someone.
If Trump returns, he’s going to have to appoint directors of the CIA and FBI and an AG who will clean house of the whole upper echelon of leadership in each agency/department/bureau. THAT’s the swamp that actually needs to be drained. They enable the whole sick circus.
Very perceptive analsyses my Dear.
Zelinsky did something monumentally stupid at the outset of this conflict, when he conscripted every male between the ages of 17 and 60 as soldiers. This means that, whether they like it or not, whether they are uniformed or not, they have legally been classified as “combatants,” which means that they can be shot on sight. This would absolve the Russians from complicity in war crimes as these men are not now civilians.
What? No, who told you that nonsense. Indiscriminately killing unarmed, ununiformed military age men in a civilian environment is a war crime.
Somebody needs to sit in front of an indeterminately long PowerPoint on the laws of armed conflict.
No one said anything about “indiscriminately killing unarmed men in a civilian environment” so, of course, no one told us that.
They were civilians until they were drafted into the military. They are military now and they are all armed.
Someone needs to stop twisting words. Your characterization, if taken out of context, could hurt us and I’m tired of it, Nate. Seriously, let people speak for themselves. Don’t restate their words in a disingenuous way.
Nate, you obviously didn’t read my comment. Zelensky, in declaring all able-bodied men (I guess he means biological males) to be conscripted, made them combatants. They can be shot on sight. That’s what it means to be a “combatant.”
If you got a problem take it up with Z.
Here is a possibly emergent political configuration:
This will be the new Ukraine: A confederation of semi-independent states
https://www-pronews-gr.translate.goog/amyna-asfaleia/diethnis-asfaleia/1062662_shedio-gia-katalipsi-olis-tis-oykranias-apo-toys-rosoys-kai?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en
‘ Russia seems to be aiming to occupy all of Ukraine and create a confederation of semi-independent states.
According to the regional governor of Kherson, Gennady Laguta, the Russians are planning to create a “Republic of Kherson”. “Today, March 4, the Russians will fill Svoboda Square with Russian flags and shout for the creation of the” Republic of Kherson “,” G. Laguta claimed.
For this reason people are transported to the city. We saw at least two large full buses, 20 cars and many other private and military vehicles.
“I want to call on the people of Hersonissos not to participate in the march. “Do not be deceived ,” said the regional governor of Hersonissos.
The information of defencenet.ru , transmitted by pronews.gr , is confirmed in essence , that the Russian Army will proceed to the far western borders of today’s Ukraine, a plan that includes Lviv, where the Ukrainian regime is now based, and will arrive. up to the Polish and Moldovan borders
At the same time, the Russian Speaker of the Parliament stated that the model of Ukraine of 1991 no longer exists.
The member of the State Council of Crimea, Vladimir Konstantinov, spoke about the collapse of Ukraine and its division into 3 state formations.
“The model of this state chosen by the founders of Ukraine has destroyed the unity of their society.”
The population of the country is divided into three geographical parts:
To the people of Western Ukraine who became the main base of the current government
To the inhabitants of Central Ukraine who gave them the right to follow the Westerners
And to the inhabitants of Southeastern Ukraine who are considered lower-class citizens. That did not change even when citizens of southeastern Ukraine came to power.
After the military operation, it is unlikely that the citizens of these three regions will live together as part of a single state entity. The new democracies to be established within the borders of Kharkiv, Odessa, Kherson, Nikolaev and possibly Zaporizhia and Dnepropetrovsk will follow Donetsk and Lugansk.
Of course, Transnistria will join them, which will have a real opportunity to decide on its future.
“This is the historic New Russia, the Republics of which can conclude a federal or confederal treaty with each other.
All of them, I think, would gladly become part of Russia, but maybe that will not work right away. “This is the most brotherly and beloved part of the former Ukraine for us , ” said the speaker of the Crimean parliament.
The central part of the country can opt for a neutral regime. As for Western Ukraine, it is very likely to become a protectorate of the European Union.
At the same time, the Transcarpathia , having the experience of statehood and even independence, may well become an independent state.
“Throughout the territory of the former Ukraine, regardless of its future fate, the operation of demilitarization and denazification must continue. “We must receive guarantees (I would say, secure them) so that not a single part of the former Ukraine will end up in NATO and become a platform for hosting enemy weapons systems ,” Konstantinov concluded. ‘
Is this true? I don’t know – but it might be…
I know that’s what they want but the West has fought them on this. NATO wants in. If people are serious about not wanting Ukrainian people to get hurt, they need to understand what NATO would do to Ukraine to get close enough to Russia to take a shot. NATO and Russia will try to annihilate each other over/in Ukraine.
Better to be on one side or the other than be stuck in the middle of something like that.
I’m glad to finally see some good background to all of this. MSM seems intent on portraying this as if there is no history behind all of this. In reality, this conflict has been brewing for at least 2 decades. In the early 2010s, Ukraine had a referendum in which most Ukrainians voted to remain under the Russian Federation. As a result, the West has continually sought ways to undermine this support. MSM has conveniently forgotten Maiden I & II in which the US/NATO/EU had funded the neo-nazi thugs & even brought in more to assist those previously organic to the Ukraine in order to usurp the Ukraine’s duly elected president. It worked. The forming of the schismatic OCU under Dumenko was encouraged & funded by our own state department in order to weaken the Russian-backed UOC under Onuphry & thus again blacken Russia’s eye.
At times I feel like I am the only one who remembers the West’s continued divide & conquer strategy throughout Eastern Europe. For example, I grew up learning how to spell & find Yugoslavia on maps & globes. But now there is no Yugoslavia as it has been divided into several small & powerless countries. Same with Czechoslovakia & others.
Yes, there is a power play being made on the world stage which is portrayed as right to democracy, but that’s just a sham. The intent is to break up all things formerly-Soviet-now-Russian in order for the West to dominate & control. In reality, actual followers of history know that this battle has been going on for centuries & did not just start in the early 1900s with the atheistic Soviet take over.
This complicates The Narrative:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OXpBtWDdHSU
George,
Yeah, it’s gone on for eight years. That’s the bitter reality of it.
The dynamic of what is happening at the global level is beyond anyone’s control. It is God’s revenge on the neo-liberal/neo-con Borg for the the way they have ruled for decades and, specifically, for what they did to Trump and Russia. What you are seeing is an emerging alliance of Russia-China-India-Iran-Saudi Arabia-UAE and possibly other state actors to push back – shove back – at FemGloboHomo, Inc.
It is truly breathtaking to watch . . . and exciting. Russia will reassert itself in its sphere of influence. China will do the same (at the probable expense of Taiwan). Though there is no mutual defense pact (like NATO), each of the above countries will have the others’ back in these matters. You can see it emerging daily in the world news.
Moreover, the war is coming to America – perhaps only lukewarm, perhaps hot. That is anyone’s guess. But you will have a red tsunami in November following the Russian takeover of Ukraine and its immediate economic fallout in Europe followed by a Chinese takeover of Taiwan and its immediate economic fallout.
The sky is falling on Biden.
Next January running straight through to January 2025, will be very dicey and dangerous. You will have an aggressive MAGA controlled Republican party in control of Congress and the last of the neo-liberal dictators ensconced in the White House. Congress will investigate, subpoena and prosecute and Biden will use the full force of the DOJ and the DS to impose as much of a police state as he can manage (this has already started).
It will be a hot mess, indeed – all at the same time as the West is reeling from the economic aftereffects of Ukraine and Taiwan. Neoliberalism and their neoconservative enablers will be very dangerous during this period inasmuch as they will feel, rightly, that they are cornered or, to use the Russian metaphor, in the cauldron. However, I sense the writing is on the wall. It is just a matter of how contentious the transition will be.
The situation remains fluid, but a few particular items and notes.
Looking at Kherson, apparently the Ukrainian people didn’t get the memo that the Russians are “liberators”:
https://twitter.com/michaelh992/status/1500037445005594624
Grotesquely overinflating the number of neo-nazis and far-right figures and pretending they are doing the bulk of the fighting is a false narrative that only comes back to bite you.
I admit, I fully expected Russia to conduct a proper SEAD campaign and subsequently ground Ukrainian air assets in the first few days of the war. That did not happen. Russian air has had a brutal past 36 hours, with nine confirmed aircraft or helicopters shot down. Two of those were Su-34s, which suggests either the Ukrainians are continuing to field mobile SAM capability, or the Su-34s were having to operate at lower altitudes due to lack of available PGM, making them vulnerable to MANPADs.
The past week and a half has caused some analysists to reassess Russian aerial capabilities:
https://rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/rusi-defence-systems/russian-air-force-actually-incapable-complex-air-operations
Russia has started attaching SHORAD escorts to supply convoys, but in at least one instance, the Ukrainians hit it using a TB2 and then rolled up on the convoy with attack helicopters.
On the ground, the South continues to go much better than the North for Russia, which remains bordering disaster level. This isn’t to say Russia won’t eventually pull it together and make Kyiv look like Aleppo, but they’ve hamstrung themselves with poor supply and apparent widespread mechanical issues due to lack of preventative maintenance. When you see multiple high-value assets like Pantsirs abandoned after breaking down, it makes one wonder what kind of shape run of the mill trucks are in.
Some on the ground reporting from the last day or two:
https://breakingdefense.com/2022/03/letter-from-kyiv-putins-war-on-ukraine-is-pozor-rossii/
https://www.wsj.com/articles/ukraines-special-forces-hold-off-russian-offensive-on-kyivs-front-lines-11646417190?st=qrzrh5leq99gqft&reflink=share_mobilewebshare
Finally, huge grain of salt, but a supposed leaked FSB report doesn’t pull any punches on the situation (original Russian, I haven’t seen any non Google-translate English versions yet):
https://www.facebook.com/vladimir.osechkin/posts/4811633942268327
Hello Nate.
Now we are moving into Lent. I like Ukrainians and Russians, and it’s sad for me to see so many dead on both sides. If I see a young Russian soldier lying with a white arm out like a butchered animal, it’s pretty sad. Someone who cares about Ukrainians would also naturally feel the same way about their situation. War, especially like this is a disaster. Christians should be Peacemakers. To do this one should come at the situation with a feeling of care for both sides.
Often in many news articles and Twitter feeds like those that you posted, I see what comes across as “point scoring” when Russian soldiers are killed. Is that how Americans who opposed the wars in Iraq or Vietnam would feel about photos of US soldiers being killed?
Certainly, peacemaking is a goal and we should instead come at the situation with a goal to make peace, and feel mutual concern. This involves thinking about what each “side’s” most important concerns are, even if we don’t agree with them. Blessed Be the Peacemakers. May the Lord show goodness and mercy and may people grow in wisdom and caring.
I’m increasingly less concerned about the economic sanctions leveled against Russia and increasingly intrigued by the possibilities for Russian retaliation at a time and place of their choosing.
This was The Economist’s take on the effect of sanctions. The interesting thing about the article, which is from the belly of the Beast, so to speak, is this passage:
***
“Instead, the really big step is to target the institution at the heart of Russia’s fortress economy, the central bank. It holds $630bn of foreign reserves, equivalent to 38% of Russia’s gdp in 2021 (the sanctions may also cover other government-run funds). Officials in the Biden administration say that they, acting with Europe, will prevent the central bank from using these reserves to undermine the impact of sanctions. As part of the fortress strategy Russia has shifted the composition of its reserves away from dollars: as of June 2021, it held only 16% in greenbacks, versus 32% in euros, 22% in gold and 13% in Chinese yuan. However, it is likely that the majority of its holdings of securities, bank deposits and other instruments, regardless of the currency they are denominated in, are held in accounts with financial institutions or in jurisdictions that will enforce Western sanctions. That means some, or even much, of Russia’s national war chest can be frozen.
Responding to the new measures the central bank said on February 27th that it had all necessary resources and instruments to maintain financial stability.”
***
Russia has taken extensive efforts to protect its reserves from just such a move. No one seems to be able to come up with or come forth with an actual number as to how much of Russia’s over 600 billion dollars in reserves has been “frozen”. Russia’s central bank seems unphased and the Russian government does not seem alarmed by the current circumstances – other than, of course, observing that such measures constitute an act of war. This type of economic warfare was not even unleashed against the Nazi’s during WWII.
When this storm has passed, Putin is going to blame the Europeans primarily, I suspect. This is because he probably understands the political situation in America as unstable and has more respect for us as an imperial power, whereas the Europeans have taught him to view them as loathsome pests. He has several significant weapons at his disposal to inflict justice on Europe and it is impossible to predict which ones he will utilize.
But he will retaliate. It would be foolish not to do so.
First of all, he can reduce the supply of Russian gas, oil and grain to Europe.
Second, he will have created a neo-Nazi, mafia state in Western Ukraine right on the EU’s door. He will cordon it off so that it cannot and will not attack Eastern Ukraine (and with no sympathetic characters left there, from a Russian perspective, the Westies will know that the Russians can and would end them). However, these little darlings will have a new enemy. Hell hath no fury like an ally scorned. They will (and Zelensky shows signs of already being in this process) turn on EU/NATO with a truly ponderous hatred for having betrayed them (cue in Hitler in the bunker footage).
Third, and this is perhaps my favorite, have you taken a look at Belgrade lately?:
https://www.euractiv.com/section/politics/news/thousands-of-serbs-march-in-support-of-russia-in-belgrade/
https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2022-03-04/pro-russia-serbs-march-in-belgrade-as-country-treads-ever-finer-line-between-east-and-west
https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/russia-ukraine-latest-news-2022-03-04/card/serbia-rally-backs-russia-in-ukraine-conflict-i5ekqpE6BmVfupK7ZUc4
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sport/sportsnews/article-10577049/Fans-Serbian-football-team-Red-Star-Belgrade-chant-SUPPORT-Russias-invasion-Ukraine.html
Gee, it’s almost like they think they have some sort of bone to pick with NATO, isn’t it? Seventy-eight days of bombing do leave a nasty mark. How long before they are on the march again? And who will back them firmly this time? “What are you going to do, sanction us?”
It’s in dollars. I pretty much only keep a bare minimum in my bank account cause we’re going to some kind of gold-backed currency. Maybe they won’t lose anything but paper. (Warning: the only thing I know about money is how to spend it.)
Galinushka,
This is what will decide this conflict.
Also, from JoeBlog is this.
Briefly summarizing: Following western sanctions, Moscow suspended its stock market from trading inasmuch as the impetus is for everyone to sell everything. This will continue indefinitely until the present situation is resolved. Thus Russian stock ownership by foreign entities is locked in – no one can sell.
However, a number of companies are also saying they are going to quit operating and withdraw completely from Russia. This has prompted the Russian government to amend its bankruptcy laws. What the Russians are doing is to say that if they want to divest, they can do so but be bankrupted out and lose all their assets developed in Russia.
Basically, this means that western firms can leave with the shirts on their backs but their Russian employees will inherit the company’s assets, or they will go to the RF government to be reprivatized later (some to the Chinese).
Day 10 of the Russian special operation in Banderastan
https://thesaker.is/day-10-of-the-russian-special-operation-in-banderastan/
[Map]
‘ I won’t comment much because either it is self-evident to you and my commentary is not needed,
or this looks like an imminent Ukrainian victory over a “miscalculating Putin” to you,
in which case no comments of mine are going to help either. ‘
“I second that emotion…”
More on the ground reporting on Russia’s increasingly brutal campaign against Ukrainian cities:
https://www.wsj.com/articles/in-the-rubble-of-ukraines-second-largest-city-survivors-make-their-stand-nobody-wants-the-russians-11647013623
https://www.csmonitor.com/World/Europe/2022/0311/What-it-s-like-to-fight-the-Russians-The-defense-of-Mykolaiv
Ukrainian public opinion in the wake of the invasion could be summarized as: resolute and defiant:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/03/10/ukraine-poll-majority-ukrainians-support-armed-resistance-oppose-concessions-russia-new-poll-finds/
Two and a half weeks in, I think it is safe to say the notion that “Russia would never hurt the Ukrainian people.” is buried under a huge pile of rubble.
You realize that much of what you’re seeing is war footage from China. The Ukrainians being targeted would think nothing of showing you footage of civilians being killed and tell you the Russians did it. Trash your sources, Nate, or you will never know the truth.
No, I am not seeing “war footage from China”. This is the 21st century, geolocating the vast majority of urban imagery and footage is not difficult. Cities like Kharkiv have quite a bit of Street View mapping available on Google Maps!
Your post reminds me of this BBC story ‘My city’s being shelled, but mum won’t believe me’:
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60600487
All I can do is offer the red pills, not compel their consumption.
I suppose you believe in “the Ghost of Kiev” as well?
Those who are “red-pilled” don’t quote from the Wall Street Journal or the Washington Post.
George and Galina may disagree with me on this, but I will be frank about it for God and everybody to hear:
The one thing upon which I disagree with Vladimir Vladimirovich is the humanitarian restraint with which the Russians are, by all reliable accounts, approaching this war. He is president of Russia so I defer to his wisdom in the present instance, but on principle I disagree with what they are not doing.
If you really want to avoid civilian casualties and minimize enemy combatant casualties, don’t wage war. Both are inevitable and not only are they inevitable but they are essential if you intend to be militarily efficient about prosecuting the war with all vigor and thus ending it as quickly as possible. Minimizing military casualties on the enemy side, and even excessive minimizing of civilian casualties on the enemy side, necessarily interferes with the efficiency of operations.
Now, one does not target civilians specifically for no military purpose. That is the definition of terrorism. However, if civilians become collateral damage as a direct result of military operations, then better to make that sacrifice than to prolong the war needlessly and compromise the rapid attainment of objectives.
The current Russian restraint seems to be the product of a concern for kith and kin; i.e., with fellow Eastern Slavs. I feel that too. However, I would caution President Putin that the only credit he will receive for this gesture of kindness, if any, will be from his Russian constituents. Those Ukrainians who hate the invasion will hate it regardless. Those who welcome it will welcome it regardless. And even internally in Russia, he will be subject to the same calculus that I am describing hear, and potential criticism, since such mercy extended to Ukrainians is at the expense of Russian soldiers.
In short, I think it is bad policy – period. Go in loud and dirty and make sure no one there wants you ever to come back.
“And he said, Take the arrows. And he took them. And he said unto the king of Israel, Smite upon the ground. And he smote thrice, and stayed. And the man of God was wroth with him, and said, Thou shouldest have smitten five or six times; then hadst thou smitten Syria till thou hadst consumed it: whereas now thou shalt smite Syria but thrice.”
Galinushka,
I don’t believe a single word or a picture offered by the MSM regarding Russia’s role in this. Not a single one. They have too much skin in the game not to lie aggressively. And, post-Trump, now we know how far they are willing to go in manufacturing bs.
Evidence that the many videos you can find online, on Telegram are all fake? War footage from China? Evidence – clear and concrete from a proper source?
Frankly you and George should be deeply ashamed of your non-Christian behaviours, supporting a war criminal like Putin and Russia, who is committing war crimes. De-Nazify Ukraine? Please – Russia needs to be De-Putinised. He is a murderer. Shelling monasteries? Churches? Children? Women? Maternity hospitals (oh yes, Nazis filled it with weapons..really..evidence?)
Download Telegram – join various groups and see the videos being posted there by Ukrainians. Videos western media wont show because of how shocking it is – burned bodies, dead people.
Shame on you, George and all the other apologists here.
Well, two can play this game Mr Ivanov.
So far, every mitigating “fact” that has come out of the Ukraine (including the “maternity hospital”) has been debunked. And opposing facts which appear to justify the Russian invasion, i.e. biolabs, has been proven to be true.
In fact, it was just six days ago that the whole “biolab narrative” was flitted away as a “conspiracy theory.” Whereas we were later told that there were *ahem* “maybe eight” biolabs, now that number has increased significantly, hasn’t it? And of course, thanks to our knowledge of the Wuhan biolabs, we now know that these were not merely “research facilities,” don’t we?
And as for that self-ordained charlatan which was installed by Globohomo, Inc, the less said, the better.
I am heartsick by what is happening in the Ukraine, no two ways about it, but Putin was presented by constant provocations.
Finally, it is estimated that 14,000 people have been killed over the past eight years in the Donbas by the Ukronazis. Have you, sir, shed a tear for one of them?
Be very humble sir about who you accuse of having “non-Christian behaviors.”
George,
I would not waste time on evil trolls (or space on your blog). In a war, people are killed. In Mariupol, for example, there will be extensive civilian casualties since Azov is making it a point to use human shields, even capturing them trying to leave the area. Yet this will not deter the Russians from killing the Nazis.
It is telling that we have, 77 years after the end of WWII, Russia fighting bona fide, card carrying Nazis supported and funded by the West and the US in particular. Yes, someone does need to be ashamed but it is not Russians or Russo-Ukrainians who are doing God’s work, messy though it be.
And evil trolls can burn in hell.
Oh I am very happy to accuse you of having non-Christian behaviour.
The Maternity Hospital – where is the evidence that it was all fake? Lavrov can lie through his teeth and claim that it held militants but has not provided a shed of proof to that effect. But then this is the man who claimed that Russia never invaded Ukraine.
The biolabs in Ukraine are a relic from Soviet times – the US has been helping Ukraine decommission them. In fact, it is Russia that has used chemical weapons – have you shed tears for the poor people of Aleppo? Or the poor people of Grozny?
You may not be aware of this, but the Cooperative Threat Reduction Program began after the fall of the Soviet Union in 1991 to reduce the threat of existing weapons of mass destruction. It is housed within the US Defense Department’s Defense Threat Reduction Agency. Russia made similar claims in 2018 in respect of Georgia’s Lugar Center for Public Health Research.
You are woefully uninformed.
Mr Ivanov, my lovely wife is being charitable. At this point in time, anybody who believes anything that comes out of the government and their handmaidens in the media is naive.
Please see my latest piece as to why fewer and fewer people are suspending belief about what they are being told. It’s called “The Crumbling Narrative.”
As for your characterization of my “non-Christian behavior,” in the spirit of the Lent, I forgive you.
That’s not how Russia sees it:
http://www.informationliberation.com/?id=62947
Materialism is the fatally flawed outlook.
Saunca, I don’t disagree at all. That goes both ways though, doesn’t it?
You think our hands are clean?
The biolabs in Ukraine are a relic from Soviet times
For sure.
Even the US Nulaland admits they exist but You don’t.
And who is that woman if you can cal her woman
https://www.theguardian.com/world/video/2014/feb/07/eu-us-diplomat-victoria-nuland-phonecall-leaked-video
If they are a relics from Societ times, how come everyone claimed to know nothing about them?
And why does US information describe a US program there?
It takes 30 years to secure these facilities? Please.
US was funding bioweapons labs in Ukraine for a possible war against Russia. Better bioweapons than escalate to nukes since Russia has an advantage both in sheer numbers of warheads and delivery systems, but also in tactical nukes (low yield battlefield nukes). Better to use bioweapons and chemical weapons if its going to go down the mass destruction rabbit hole.
But Ukraine is just the catalyst for the much, much bigger story of the acceleration this provides to the demise of the petrodollar. In 2020, Russia surpassed Saudi Arabia as the country from which China imports the most oil. They had been neck and neck and SA may have regained the lead in 2021.
The Ukraine fiasco directly affects this dynamic. The Saudis are about to approve the Chinese yuan as an alternative exchange mechanism for their oil market. They have to in order to protect their position in the Chinese market since two things are evident to most reasonable observers:
1. The Russians and Chinese oil trade will only increase now as a result of the war, probably dramatically, and
2. As soon as the monkey poop fight at the zoo that is the Biden Junta is displaced in the US, America will go hard toward reasserting its energy independence, ramping up oil production and seeking to fill the gap in Europe that will be created by the Russian pivot eastward.
That means, probably, that you can add Saudi Arabia to the Troika (China, Russia and India) as well as possibly Venezuela and Iran. It also means that sooner rather than latter, the days of the US dollar as the world’s reserve currency will have passed.
This is the decline of the West. Fiat money is supported by the phenomenon of the petrodollar. Without it, Western economies sink into inflationary recession/depression.
Putin didn’t want this protracted conflict that’s taking so many lives. He thought that the Ukraine was weak and would give up right away like they did in Crimea because that’s what the FSB told him. Word is he’s already fired 8 generals for failing to end the invasion quickly and for high losses.
Now, though, he can’t pull out. The loss of face and prestige both for him and Russia if he did, and the fact that he’ll never get another chance to de-westernize the Ukraine mean he has to go all-in. He can’t afford to lose this war.
The people in power in the West who act so hysterical about all the death and destruction are the same ones egging the Ukrainians on and sending hardware and supplies to keep their proxy war going for as long as possible, knowing that Russia will never give up until her mission there is complete. They’re more than willing to “fight” to the last Ukrainian and until Kiev is a pile of rubble if it means keeping their puppet in power, their children on the payrolls of profitable oil companies, and bleeding Russia’s resources dry in a drawn-out conflict.
Putin wanted this to end last week with minimal losses. The West is preventing this and making sure the Ukraine gets destroyed in the process. I’m sorry, but who’s hurting the Ukrainian people here?
Dear Nate,
I tried posting you a reply message about peacemaking for two of your past posts. Did you see either of them?
Kind regards.
The Washington Post article’s info on polling is unexpected enough that I don’t know how reliable it is.
It notes, “Eighty-eight percent of Ukrainians said they are favorable toward President Volodymyr Zelensky”. This seems like a bit too high of a number because before the war, it was in the 30’s percentagewise, and because a significantly lower percentage, albeit a strong majority, seemed to want to continue the war. As a result, I am skeptical about how precisely reliable these results are.
The other comment I want to make is that it says, “most Ukrainians want to keep up the fight”, and that it says that such a high number, like “79 percent of Ukrainians reject accepting Moscow’s recognition last month of areas of the Donbas region of eastern Ukraine as part of Russia, even if doing so would end the fighting.”
I don’t have a strong belief in peace at any cost in all wars, but I am war-averse. Christians are called to be peacemakers and seek peace. I think that it would be helpful for Christians to think how to make peace work and to look for peace in the Ukraine situation instead of just Russia and Ukraine putting each other through a meatgrinder for a long time until they draw a ceasefire line someplace as happens in so many conflicts.
Can’t say I’m surprised as they’re still pushing the vaccine! However, if this were true, there would be few Russian Churches left. You can see by their numbers where the hearts of the Ukrainian people are, especially the two separatists, in the Donetsk People’s Republic and Luhansk People’s Republic.
There is detailed evidence that Ukrainian media is recycling photos taken from a 2018 gas explosion, and passing them off now as if they are representative of the current situation. I’m not saying there hasn’t been destruction and death in the past 10 days, but is that caused by western Ukrainian antifa-like militia, Russian forces, CIA operatives to protect American oil interests, or who the heck else?
And nothing will ever convince me that Russia deliberately bombed an Orthodox monastery. Or a maternity hospital. There is zero chance they were the ones doing those acts. Not Russia, not Putin. However, there are a handful of other players in this live streamed season of fake Hunger Games that would totally manipulate this situation and its outcome. Please, please, please question mainstream media and its actors (as in literal actors such as billionaire oligarch and tv actor Zelensky) before you buy what they are selling!
A brilliant analysis by Dr John Mearsheimer:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bkC9mZgaLDI
Not a particular good analysis.
This is the man who spent the weeks leading up to this war insisting that Russia would never actually invade Ukraine because it really just wanted to use the threat of doing so to extort promises to keep Ukraine out of NATO and the EU from the US and Europe, which would back down and make any concessions Russia asked foe. I wouldn’t give him too much credit for seeing it coming. He was pretty clearly wrong both about Russia not really wanting to annex Ukraine and about the rest of the world’s response.
Putin wanted to roll-over Ukraine’s military, and set up a puppet government that would be sympathetic to Russia (see Belarus) and seems to have believed this was possible. Now I think Putin wants to survive: if he is seen as losing it’s possible someone else will decide now’s the time to get rid of the 69 year old man who’s clearly not capable of ruling Russia. So Putin needs to make this a “win” no matter what: hence shelling cities to rubble. But that wasn’t his original plan. Or – if proved true – using white phosphorus.
Good luck trying to persuade c 44m people to support you.
Mr Ivanov, am I to understand from your writing that you’re OK with “nazification”?
Please explain.
And if you would, could I ask you how you feel about the present war in the Yemen? or felt about the American invasion of Iraq and the destruction of Libya?
If you answer these questions, you might have a moral leg to stand on.
For the record, I was in favor of the American invasion of Iraq because I (and others) were led to believe that Iraq possessed WMDs and thus were in material breach of several UN resolutions. We were lied to but if it had been so, I believe we would have been justified. I assume because of your moralism you would have been opposed regardless of whether they possessed WMDs or not.
And again, I ask your positions regarding the other hot wars presently raging.
De-Nazification? Oh my – point out the Nazis in the Ukrainian Government? The Azov group? Yes, full of Nazis but not a government organisation. Or we can mention the Nazi Wagner group which is used by Russia and financed by one of Putin’s cronies?
One can easily criticise American actions in Libya or Yemen and frankly, the US has made errors over the last century. Especially by Republican presidents.
But we are not talking about Yemen or Libya – we are talking about the unprovoked attack on an independent country. A country that should have the choice as to what it wants to do with its future. Same as the Baltics, same as Georgia.
If the Ukrainian neo-Nazis were attacking the people of Donbast, why did Russia wait 8 years before bravely going in to help them? Russia is keeping its “special military operation” in the east of Ukraine but oh dear…look at how its troops are spreading (or trying to – the great Russian army is not looking so great).
I mean we an always listen to Tucker Carson for his wise words but oh boy, look at him – sprouting Russian propaganda. The Church has Holy Fools. Russia has a Tucker fool:
https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2022/03/exclusive-kremlin-putin-russia-ukraine-war-memo-tucker-carlson-fox/
OK, here you go: https://youtu.be/x5Uf7aooxvE
That was from five years ago. There’s way more. I’ll supply them if you wish.
Yemen and Libya provided no provocation to the US/NATO. None at all. In fact, Libya was willing to disarm all their WMD completely. And since no good deed goes unpunished, we bombed them back into the stone age. But wait! There’s more! Now black Africans are being sold in open-air slave markets!
Regarding your statement re the victims in the Donbas, I don’t understand your point: are you angry with Putin because he waited eight years to come to their defense? Or, perhaps you don’t believe that there have been 1000s of victims who were murdered by the Ukrainian govt and/or their “allies”?
Please help me to understand.
Yes, Putin is in deep doo-doo. He probably won’t survive much longer. The damage done to Russia-Ukraine relations might never be repaired after this invasion. Except for Donbass and Crimea, it’s probably impossible for the rest of Ukraine to side with Russia now.
I disagree. You’re going to be shocked when you see how this thing is going to turn around. You’re forgetting that 80% of Ukrainians think of themselves as Russian. This was a rescue mission. The U.S. lied to us yet again.
I don’t think Joseph understands Slavs very well. While I’m not sure that “”80%” of Ukrainians think of themselves as Russian, it is a high percentage in the East and Central parts of the country, depending somewhat on susceptibility to ideology.
Actually, for those who grew up before the dissolution of the Soviet Union, this whole thing probably seems quite farcical when it comes to Ukrainian nationalism. Galina is correct that this is really a rescue mission – an intervention, I would say – since those Ukrainians that have turned on Mother Russia are confused and simply “know not what they do”. They have been brainwashed and poisoned by Western propaganda – led down the primrose path that they were going to become fashionable Western Europeans at Russia’s expense without the Bear taking offense or action.
Now, they were fools to believe this drivel. But that is what got them to where they are now. They will be lucky if they escape with a viable, unpartitioned state. They will have to change their attitude to be accepted back by their Russian brethren who will be their military overlords for the foreseeable future.
Putin and Russia will get through this fine. Lavrov has done his work very well. China, India and much of the rest of the developing world are peachy keen sympatico with Russia on this.
Do not believe Western outlets regarding anything concerning Russia. Go to Third World outlets which have a better chance of being closer to neutral. Or, if you dare (and I do), you can go to Russian outlets. I treat what they say with the healthy skepticism I used to reserve for my own government before I realized it was the Bride of the Beast and Whore of Babylon. from which no light emanates – a black hole.
Yesterday after his sermon, Patriarch Kirill presented an icon of the Mother of God to the Commander-in-Chief of the National Guard of the Russian Federation, General of the Army V.V. Zolotov, with the words, “Let this image inspire young soldiers who take the oath, who embark on the path of defending the Fatherland”.
https://foto.patriarchia.ru/news/patriarshee-sluzhenie-v-nedelyu-torzhestva-pravoslaviya-v-khrame-khrista-spasitelya-2022-03-13/
Upon receiving the icon in church, General Zolotov further admitted yesterday that “not everything is going as fast as we would like, but we are going towards our goal step by step and victory will be for us, and this icon will protect the Russian army and accelerate our victory”.
https://www.axios.com/russia-national-guard-zolotov-ukraine-invasion-44c61afd-91ac-4a0f-9068-7efadc9ce295.html
How strange that the Russian National Guard, a military unit designed to protect Russia’s borders, is being used for the Ukrainian invasion. Perhaps this was intentionally done so as to initially deny any such plans. General Zolotov doesn’t talk in terms of defense, however. Instead, what he describes is a military offensive, that is an invasion, saying “we are going towards our goal step by step and victory will be for us”.
How strange also that an icon of the Mother of God is being invoked to protect the invading Russian armies and grant them victory over Ukrainian Orthodox Christian soldiers. It’s bizarre.
The Ukrainian Orthodox Christian soldiers are at least actually defending their country’s borders.
I distinctly recall being deployed to warzones far, far from US borders with… the National Guard! And civilian police units!
Most militaries make use of internal law enforcement agencies for external operations if law enforcement or peacekeeping is involved.
Here’s another pretty good analysis: https://thesaker.is/on-maps-wars-and-hate-filled-mobs-canceling-russia/
War is there for 8 yeras so your point is completely wrong. Russians will stop this war against Orthodoxy and will create new world order where US will not be the only one who set the rules.
Oops! This is inconvenient:
https://rumble.com/vx9h00-there-are-25-us-funded-biolabs-in-ukraine.html
My only regret at this point is that Tulsi Gabbard didn’t run for President on a third ticket. Had she done so, it would have been impossible for the Deep State to steal the amount of votes they needed to rig Creepy Joe into office.
And we wouldn’t be where we are presently.
Just yesterday I was thinking about the Peloponnesian War. And then I came upon this:
https://www.takimag.com/article/the-last-war-for-the-neocons/
Interesting. I have long thought NATO was a new Delian League,
founded initially as a shield against a despotic enemy,
which itself became despotic after its enemy had been defeated.
The Sino-Russian alliance solves any number of challenges that each nation faces. This is an interesting analysis. The last line is illuminating. Perhaps the most direct benefit the Chinese derive from support of Russia in the current Ukraine crisis is that they may be able to invoke the Russian nuclear umbrella in the event of a similar Taiwan crisis. Russia is the muscle in the relationship, China the gold.
The Sino-Russian alliance solves any number of challenges that each nation faces. This is an interesting analysis. The last line is illuminating. Perhaps the most direct benefit the Chinese derive from support of Russia in the current Ukraine crisis is that they may be able to invoke the Russian nuclear umbrella in the event of a similar Taiwan crisis. Russia is the muscle in the relationship, China the gold.
ZELENSKY CALLS FOR WORLD WAR III
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IW5hSdO-yKc
Steve Turley: ‘ Ukrainian President Volodimir Zelenskyy is calling for nothing less than World War III, and our feckless incompetent Republican leaders look like they’re ready to give it to him! I’m not going to be beat around the bush at all in this video! Anyone who supports a so-called no-fly-zone in Ukraine enforced by NATO is calling for World War III, and potentially tens if not hundreds of millions of people will be killed because of it! ‘
A furore fatuorum libera nos Domine
[From the fury of fools, deliver us Lord]