Part III: The Military Situation as it Stands Now

Having examined the stunning success of the Russian forces in Part II (“The First Week”), we now turn our attention to Part III. 

<—This one is for the yuks (we’ll spare you the Vogue photoshoot).

By the second week of Russia’s Special Military Operation (SMO), it became clear that with the control of the skies which Russia enjoyed, that not only would more territory in the East and South would fall under Russia’s control but they would be able to strike decisive blows in the far  West.  

Indeed, since then, Russia now enjoys solid control over the entire eastern third of the Ukraine, in other words, the Donbass and Lugansk oblasts.  As for the South, it controls all of the area from the Russian border to the Crimea. Essentially, what we are seeing is the reconstitution of Novorossiya (New Russia).  In the South, only the port city of Odessa remains in Ukrainian control, whereas in the Northeast, only Kharkiv remains in Ukrainian hands. 

Kherson and the southern coastal cities have asked for formal inclusion into the Russian Federation a la the Crimea, as have some of their dioceses.  As to whether the Lugansk and Donetsk Republics will remain independent or seek formal inclusion into the Russian Federation remains to be seen.

I originally started this post three weeks ago.  Things have changed dramatically since then.  Given the fact that the land between the Donbass (which is in the East) and Lviv in the West is nothing but very flat steppes, it’s hard to imagine the Kievan regime mounting a spirited defense of the rest of the country.  Due to the flatness of the terrain, Western fantasies about turning the rest of Ukraine into a vast Afghanistan-like quagmire for the Russians remain just that –a fantasy.

Because I’m not a veteran but merely an amateur historian, I have to scour military websites in order to avoid Western disinformation.  One of those sites is The Vineyard of the Saker, which is run by Andrei Raevsky.  Yesterday, he published an excellent piece on the entire war so far.  Rather than offer my own feeble assessments, I ask you take the time to read his exhaustive survey of the first five month’s of Russia’s Special Military Operation.

It’s long, but it’s definitely worth it.  Here’s a brief but brilliant snippet: 

“The truth is that by the laws of warfare the Ukraine lost the war in less than a week.

“What is my evidence for such an apparently outlandish and over-the-top statement? Simple: since the beginning of the SMO, the Ukrainians failed to execute a single operational level attack or counter-attack. At most they were able to execute small, tactical level attacks, the vast majority of which almost instantly failed, a few were defeated in a few days, and, crucially, not a single one gave the Ukrainian side the operational initiative. Not once.

“So what happened?

“If Kiev had any agency [ed. note:  they don’t; they’re bought and paid for puppets of NATO] and if the Ukrainian leadership cared about their country and people [ed. note:  again, they don’t.  The Deep State hates Ukrainians almost as much as they hate Russians], they would have immediately sued for peace. But Kiev never had any agency and the buffoons in power do not give a damn about the Ukrainian people.” [Emphases in the original.]

This is a brilliant distillation in my humble opinion.  However, what follows, is the kill-shot:  it explains in one paragraph, the rabid hatred, shortsightedness, and astonishing stupidity of the collective West:

“That is the core ‘philosophy’ of the USA:  fight Russia to the last Ukrainian, prolong the war as long as possible, get as much of the civilian infrastructure of the Ukraine destroyed, subvert the status of the dollar, crash the world economy, let the EU crash and burn economically, socially, and politically, shove the Woke agenda down everyone’s throats, even if that makes them gag and throw up and, last but not least, totally and comprehensively stick your head in the sand and deny reality in all its aspects.”

In retrospect, the Russians have been remarkably restrained.  Unlike America, which didn’t hesitate to bomb Iraq and Afghanistan (or Libya and Syria for that matter) back into the Stone Age, the Russians have no abject hatred for the Ukrainians.  After all, they are the same people.  Their conquest of Ukrainian territory has been restrained and methodical, one could say plodding.  In fact, in certain circumstances during the first weeks of the SMO, they’ve exposed Russian soldiers to unnecessary peril, mainly because they didn’t want to bomb Ukrainians to smithereens.  And then there is the fact that they want to preserve as much of the Ukraine’s infrastructure as possible.  (The reason is simple:  Russians are not communists; they want to make money by exporting Ukrainian assets to the rest of the world.  If Kiev had any sense, they would too.)

Simply put, there’s no excuse for that country’s poverty, it’s not only the largest country in Europe but as far as raw materials go, the wealthiest.  The reason it’s been a basket-case for so long is because of the rampant corruption and exploitation by the local oligarchs.  For too long it’s been a cash-cow for the corrupt princelings of the West, men like Hunter Biden, Paul Pelosi Jr, and John Kerry’s stepson.  That was just the tip of the iceberg, however. 

Russia had that problem too, back in the 90s by the way.  Thanks to Putin, their house was put in order and the Russian oligarchs were either imprisoned, exiled or given the chance to make things right.  As for the Russian people themselves, Putin’s popularity has skyrocketed.  And when they saw the hatred that the West has for them, even those who were against the war are now fully on board.  Young men are lining up around the block at enlistment stations, while returning soldiers are given heroes’ welcomes.  As for those misguided Russian liberals who had Atlanticist fantasies, they have been disabused of them as well.  

For me, the question is why did the Ukrainians fall for this?  This should have been obvious when, after a month, they had a chance to sue for peace.  Or, better yet, negotiate with the Russians before the start of the war.  They would have had their entire country (save for Crimea) intact, and tens of thousands of young men would still alive. 

One thing for sure, it’s now clear to Metropolitan Onuphriy of Kiev that the present government (which is headed by President Penis Pianoplayer) is fully on board with the Globohomo agenda.  He also realizes that several of his bishops and their dioceses are seeking direct integration into the Patriarchate of Moscow.  What will be left?  “Metropolitan” Epiphony serving as a marshal in the annual Gay Pride parades?  

Anyway, here is Raevsky’s analysis in all its glory.  It’s a must read.  You won’t regret it.  

Five months into the Special Military Operation – a summary | The Vineyard of the Saker


Next:  Part IV:  The Economic Implications of the SMO.



About GShep


  1. This is what a dying empire looks like. Searching for their great plan is unwise. Their great plan was to maintain global hegemony and, as that has unraveled, they have ventured poorly conceived attempts to maintain power like the Ukrainian adventure and, shortly, the Taiwanese adventure. Both are sketchy attempts to counter what is obviously happening: the rise of Eurasia. As the Ukrainian excursion failed, some are looking for wisdom in the unintended consequences such as depression and deindustrialization in Europe and an American recession – a Western collapse which will provide the fertile ground for the political imposition of neoliberalism.

    They’re not that clever. And, besides, they want to believe their own bs.

    They thought the economies of both America and Europe would be humming along in the wake of the Covid recovery. They did not anticipate their policies causing economic pullback. Nor did they anticipate the failure of their Russian sanctions and the solid rebound of the ruble and the Russian economy. Nor did they anticipate the European energy crisis created by the sanctions and by Russian reduction in energy exports. They certainly cannot be credited with intentionally causing the fall of the Estonian government, the loss of Macron’s parliamentary majority, the defeat of Johnosn in the UK and the emerging rationing in Germany, as well as the collapse of the Italian govt.

    They have isolated themselves and turned the rest of the world against them. There was no serious calculation involved.

    This is not all according to some sinister plan any more than stagflation and malaise were intentional in the Carter years. This is simply the fruit of liberal domestic and international policy. That it aids in the Green ideal of deindustrialization is simply an unintended byproduct. They’re resurrecting coal fired plants, for heaven’s sake.

    Hopefully this is the ultimate, decisive collapse of the Liberal Ideological Vision. They have screwed the pooch, and royally.

  2. Excellent summary, btw, George.

  3. I would also add Moon of Alabama’s excellent daily summaries if you want to better understand the Ukraine war.

    • George Michalopulos says

      Absolutely! And also Viva Frei, every time he has Robert Barnes on. Also The Dreizin Report, Andrei Martyonov’s Reminiscence of the Future and Larry Johnson.

  4. Louisa Maramos says

    Hey, if the panslobs can use Obolensky and Meyendorf to deny we are Greeks, then why can’t we use Yermolenko and Plohy to deny Russia’s patriarchate or even existence? It’s payback time.

    • George michalopulos says

      I’m sorry, that makes no historical sense. Btw who are the “panslobs”?

  5. George Michalopulos says
    • Yes. We merely need to bear in mind what each side is actually fighting for; i.e., the type of culture they wish to propagate. The old western culture is dead or, at least, it is only on life support in certain remote quarters. Instead, modern western “kulchur” is an amalgamation of Scandanavian “social democracy” (imposed by fraudulent elections), racist “anti-racism” designed to disempower the dominant ethnicity, feminism designed to kill offspring and destroy the patriarchy, natural relations and fertility and mandatory exultation of perversion as good, just and its imposition even on small children to the point of mutilation. That is the monster we have become.

      Meanwhile, Russia fights for traditional values, the Church, the family and a state not seen as a melting pot of ethnicities and races but rather a patchwork mural of ethnocultural regions.

      And it does not take a genius to identify which forces are on the side of the angels.

  6. This may seem a bit marginal, but it is worth considering at some point:

    At the end of the Ukraine process, much of the Ukraine will undoubtedly be owned and operated by the RF. However, the fallout of the energy war in Europe may well be more catastrophic than Western leaders currently imagine. What if sanctions and cutoffs result in the complete destabilization of Europe and the rise of any number of nationalist governments more favorable to Russia and less to the US due to the economic devastation resulting from Western policies? This may seem a stretch but not if one considers the economic imperatives. Russian energy is available and the pipelines and other mechanisms for transit are in place. The only obstacle is Western political posturing. I.e., it is Western leaders imposing hardship on their own populations while a Russian alternative (albeit energy dependency) exists ready to assist.

    Water runs downhill and systems find their natural equilibrium. Russian energy is the only practical answer to European necessities and the infrastructure is already in place. German voices are already rising in support of activating NSII. Rationing seems now an openly discussed eventuality. And Russia has not even begun to really retaliate, nor has winter set it.

    If Europe is indeed dependent on Russian energy to the point that there is no alternative short of economic devastation, the natural dynamics will militate in favor of regime change and concession to this reality. In stark contrast to the appearances of today, this may break European solidarity with the US and force it to reconsider its relations with Russia. That seems the natural consequence of a Russian victory in Ukraine and in the wider economic conflict.

    While Russia can pivot its energy exports to Asia, though Asia may want and need these imports they are not existential to the continued stability of Asian countries. Such imports may be an existential necessity for Europe. If so, Russian energy exports will likely go to the highest bidder and, for that volume of imports it finds an existential necessity, Europe will bid as high as necessary to secure its life blood.

    The US and the current EU leadership perfectly well understand the stakes involved in the conflict and that is why they are treating it as a full blown war in every way only excepting actions which might provoke a nuclear confrontation. This war is for the economic dominance of Europe.

  7. George Michalopulos says

    Charmers, these schismatics:

  8. NAFO Fella says

    RFA Donbas offensive appears to have run out of steam at end of June. Entire month of July saw additional losses for almost no territory gain. RFA suffered significant logistic and communication setbacks in July from HIMARS strikes. Capturing all of Donetsk looks increasingly out of reach. Destroying Ukrainian forces in eastern Ukraine even more out of reach. Word on the street is many of most experienced RFA units are refusing to make further attacks in the Donbas. A big map overview of the past month

    Eyes now turning to Kherson, Russia wants to hold it, Ukraine wants to liberate it. Next big phase of the war is almost here.

  9. Anonymous II says

    Amnesty International Vindicates Ukraine War Reporting, Confirms Zelensky Forces Using Civilians As Human Shield


  10. George Michalopulos says

    If you’re not following Larry Johnson’s blog, do so. Immediately.

    “There is not one area in Ukraine where the Ukraine army has pushed the Russians out of territory they have occupied and held it against Russian counter attacks. Not one. The Russian feint towards Kiev in early March does not count. Western propaganda insists this was a tremendous Ukrainian victory. But Russia used that operation to fix Ukrainian forces around Kiev so that the Russian, Donetsk and Luhansk forces could mass for the offensive to retake the Donbas. And that is exactly what the Special Military Operation has been doing over the last five months.

    “The only “offense” we are seeing from Ukraine is the shelling of civilians in the Donbas. This does highlight one shortcoming of the Russian SMO–the lack of effective, comprehensive counter battery fire. It is worth noting that the areas being targeted by Ukraine are in the Western part of the Donbas occupied by Russia and its allied Republics (i.e., Donetsk and Luhansk). Killing a few civilians in cities in the Donbas with indiscriminate shelling–while horrific for the families who loose loved ones–does not win the war for Ukraine. In fact, it reinforces its image as a lawless violator of human rights. Still, it is up to Russia to put in place the necessary intelligence platforms required to quickly identify the source of the fires and destroy them.”

  11. George Michalopulos says

    Larry Johnson continues to skewer the “fascist” (govt + corporate power) narrative put out by the controlled, Western media:

    “At some point, the idiot savants writing screeds for western publications like Fortune will wake up and smell the industrial and manufacturing fumes of Russia’s plants and factories. We are back to “projection”. Ignorant but credentialed reporters and pundits spew nonsense that is only going to deceive an equally gullible, ignorant public. But there is a cure. Read for yourself. Ask questions. Demand data.

    “Meanwhile, the ignorance is bliss crowd continues to dominate the corporate media and halls of political power in Washington, DC and London. But this comes at a cost. It is called reality. Just as Baghdad Bob discovered that his denial that U.S. tanks were rolling into Baghdad did not make those beasts of war vanish, people like Yvonne Lau, Michael McFaul and George Will will discover that Russians are not a stupid, slothful band of kulaks, passed out in pools of vodka laced vomit. Russia controls some critical industrial and agricultural trump cards and knows how to play them.

    “I close with one fun fact. Did you know that between 1942 and 1945 that Russia produced more tanks than the United States? Look it up.”

  12. George Michalopulos says
  13. Sofia Ceramenes says

    Marco Polo was Croatian, growing up in Constantinople, brat son of the occupation forces. He did not go to the Emperor of China, but rather to the son of the magog decimator of China to negotiate partition of the Orthodox lands between the Vatican (Litwo-Polish and Venetian) empires and the magog. Magog is cognate with Mongol and Magyar, Gog is cognate with Hungar, Uyighur and Hangook, which is why Edward Gibbon adored the Turks. He was one, thanks to his Hun, Lapp, Finn Viking heritage.

  14. George Michalopulos says

    Ultimately, this is why the Zelensky regime is destined to lose:

    They’re going after their own history. In favor of –what? Globohomo Western “values”? They can’t even get their own history right.

  15. WE HAVE TO BE REAL CAREFUL HERE TO BLINDLY TAKE SIDES. If you look closely, The Intel Slava and Saker sites (as well as other Russian propaganda outlets) are pushing that Taiwan is really China. There is nothing good or Christian about China. I have been to both places, Taiwan is not China and they do not want to be taken over by them. The Saker, in particular, is pushing the side of China which makes them suspect. THIS IS HOW YOU KNOW THIS IS COMMUNIST PROPAGANDA. Russia is not 100% clean, so we should be careful to just blindly side with them. The whole war makes me very uncomfortable, my background as a Monarchist makes be very suspicious – there are still strong atheist-communist roots in Russia.

    • Gail Sheppard says

      Maybe someone can explain this to me: Why are we in Ukraine and now Taiwan? I mean, I don’t think we’re helping either one of them.

      I know the Russians aren’t perfect but who are we to judge? We’ve been horrible! We’ve messed up so many things. Can’t we spend this time working on our own problems, which are many, and let the rest of the world worry about theirs?

  16. George Michalopulos says

    A pithy old Russian saying (as retold by Andrei Raevsky (i.e. The Saker):

    “There is a Russian saying which my grandmother taught me as a kid: “the borders of Russia are found at the end of a Cossack’s spear“. This saying, born from 1000 years of existential warfare with no natural borders simply expresses a basic reality: the Russian armed forces are the ones who decide where Russia ends. Or you can flip it this way: “the only natural border of Russia are the capabilities of the Russian armed forces”.”