Last year, our good friend James Jatras, spoke at the Ron Paul Institute in Washington, DC. His lecture was “It’s Later than You Think.”
<—-Is this why we fight? Kinda looks satanic to me.
He graciously sent it to us, we published it and I offered my own critique of it.
For the most part, I agreed with Jim; as to where I disagreed, it was because I lived in a Red State while Jim lived in a Blueish State (which since then has reverted to Red). In other words, a matter of perspective.
Both are here: https://www.monomakhos.com/is-it-really-later-than-we-think/
Last week, he was again invited to speak to the Ron Paul Institute. He updated his title as well. I highly recommend that you read (or watch) it as well. (Jim, has a way with words –“cautiously pessimistic”–I wish I’d thought of that!)
Anyway, I can’t thank him enough for sending it to us.
Keep up the good work Jim! The fact that the Ron Paul Institute exists in the first place –and that gentlemen and scholars such as yourself are allowed to speak there–bodes well for the future.
I listened to Jim’s updated speech a couple of weeks ago, I’m always really glad to see when he is given much deserved air-time. I would love to see a Jim Jatras/The Duran collab.
Somewhat related to Jim’s video, two guys have started a new series called World War Now. Both of these guys are Orthodox, one of them being a contributor for Dr. Steve Turley, and they are discussing current events from an Orthodox POV. It’s a good listen.
Thanks, interesting. Now I want him to redo it in light of Putin’s speech on Friday at the incorporation of the four Ukrainian regions – and especially in light of his remarks on the West.
I would as well!
Battle-lines are being drawn, are they not?
I listened to Putin’s talk on Friday, English subtitles. Honestly, I loved it. Was refreshing to hear a leader who loves his people and his culture and his country. And to hear a leader quote Christ in a respectful manner in a speech was very cool.
I’m not delusional, I realize that Putin is not St Seraphim of Sarov. But the worldview of the Russian leadership is so diametrically opposed to the worldview of the secular leftists who run Western governments. The contrast is stark.
After America’s blasting of the pipelines last week — and us thereby waging war on Europe (!) to keep them “down” and dependent on us — it’s so increasingly obvious that the West has zero interest in peace with Russia. The current Western leadership simply will not tolerate a multipolar world. Without question, our goal is regime change in Russia, probably fought down to the last Ukrainian, Pole, Tennessean, or God forbid, nuclear bomb. The secular leftists who run the American government and NATO are nuts.
If the West will not tolerate a multipolar world, but Russia will not capitulate to the West, this is indeed an impasse. Is it traitorous for me to write that I’m proud of Russia for not capitulating to the insane Western (ie, US/NATO) leadership? Why do the Europeans tolerate our crap? Seems like psychological pathology on an international scale — we’re the sociopathic/narcissistic bullies, the Europeans are the codependent flying monkeys.
I feel like such a bad American for saying all of this, but it’s true. I think there are millions of Americans who feel as I do, but our voice is suppressed and is not welcome.
All true. – We’re not bad Americans. Those other people are globalists.
FTS, I agree with Gail: we’re definitely not “bad Americans.” Unless of course one believes that 11 year old boys dressed in drag and walking on catwalks to excite adult homosexuals is “good.”
If that’s the criterion, then I am a “bad American.”
My sincere hope is that Russia, the Global South, etc., realize that normal Americans do not equal our politicians.
Putin said as much on Friday, and I think in his February speech if I remember right.
Me too. I for one would love to tell the whole world that most Americans do not believe that parents should removed their daughters’ breasts or their sons’ testicles because of some sob-story they saw on Oprah.
Jatras is quite brutal, but interesting. I’m not as pessimistic as he is, but I can’t say I fundamentally disagree with his assessments, for the most part.
I don’t believe in pessimism. It is a recipe for depression and a self fulfilling prophecy. Expect the best, though you may need to prepare for the worst. Ideally, Republicans will sweep the midterms and inaugurate a genuine war against the Democratic Party and the Uniparty Establishment. I am more sanguine about this than Jatras due to the actions of the RF.
When God works, He tends to think big. Russia is not just the resurrection of Christendom in Russia itself. God’s work in Russia has sent seismic waves throughout Europe and even to the US. Collusion aside, Trumpism and Putinism are variations of the same basic idea – Christian Nationalism. And I can’t help but believe that it is the destiny of Trumpism to morph into a dominant party system replacing the two-party system we have at present. I think this is the nature of such a movement. The Democrats and the Uniparty pseudo-competition had their day in the sun and are now in remission/descent.
Trump and MAGA have persevered against all odds and seem to have succeeded in red pilling a critical mass of the American public. One simply cannot trust polls and surveys at this point because the culture has become too bipolar political with the MSM and even Fox invested in misrepresenting reality.
I suspect the Achilles heel of the Uniparty will be the internal rise of MAGA within the Republican ranks. The Republican Establishment could turn on Trump and echo the lies of the MSM in denying the Steal. However, that was one man in one race. Attempts by Establishment Republicans to sabotage MAGA Republicans through enabling election fraud nationally would be self destructive and irrational even by Uniparty standards. Protecting the Establishment by sinking Trump and joining the chorus is one thing. Protecting the Democratic Party by widely subverting Republican candidates nationwide and pretending its all kosher is something quite different. You would be destroying any intraparty comity, essentially splitting the Republican Party and condemning them to third party status.
They can’t afford to do that, not in any overt, decisive way. Especially not when Trump is the most popular Republican by far.
“The Democrats and the Uniparty pseudo-competition had their day in the sun and are now in remission/descent.”
Yes, I pray this is true. Like you, Misha, I think that their Leftist Boomer days are gone.
Anytime we read of Biden or Pelosi or the Obamas or the Cheneys talking about how so-and-so is a “threat to democracy,” what they’re really saying is that they’re a threat to the Boomer Leftist legacy. This Boomer legacy is dead, and I think they know it. The only way they could keep their diseased, disastrous Boomer Leftist legacy alive is by violence and lethal force against fellow Americans and westerners, which as of yet they don’t have the cojones to do.
They even said that the wonderful Italian leader Giorgia Meloni’s election last week is a “threat to democracy.” You know it’s ludicrous when they’re claiming that a democratic election result is a “threat to democracy.”
They don’t give two hoots about “democracy.” Maybe someday they’ll have the balls to just be honest about what they fear above anything: threats to their leftist Boomer Legacy, to their insane dream of a Global World Order ruled by themselves, of course.
This comment is a little off-topic because we’re “so over” COVID but we should never forget that fiasco (and hope that it’s never repeated).
In order to keep this in mind, I highly recommend this book: https://orthodoxreflections.com/tag/let-no-one-fear-death-orthodox-christian-leaders-respond-to-the-covid-19-challenge/ (written by several eminent Orthodox theologians, including Frs Alexander F C Webster, Peter Heers and His Eminence Metropolitan Jonah Paffhausen (among others).
I think we should consider the following possibility that occurred to me after watching Redacted today:
It is possible that the entire Russian operation in the Ukraine up to this point has been a maskirovka, designed to lull the West into thinking that Russia was using its full ability and barely able to secure big chunks of the Donbas and Novorossia?
Why would they do this, you ask?
To accomplish the very things they have accomplished in getting the West to show its entire hand in response to what is a mere feint. Using perhaps 10-15 percent of its capacity, Russia has caused Ukraine to waste its entire arsenal, much of its military, and caused the West to empty out its storehouses of weapons, sending them to the Ukraine to be destroyed and tasking the MIC with building more (which the Russians now know they can’t do fast enough to make a real difference in the outcome). In short, they are exhausting Western resistance and exploring the West’s weaknesses and responses, both for Russia’s benefit and that of its allies, especially China.
Had they gone in full bore, they may not have received the same sanction regimes (is it seven or eight?, I have lost count) since the war would not have lasted very long. Thus, the West would not have economically shot itself in the belly as it has. Moreover, the West would not have emptied out their weapons stocks if they saw Ukrainian resistance as a hopeless effort.
One must ask oneself, “Why else would Russia have proceeded this way?”
In retrospect, it is fairly clear. Russia now knows it has nothing to fear from the West. It knows everything the West can throw against it. It has dramatically depleted Western resources at the same time as wrecking the European economy while preserving its own while sustaining minimal damage. And it has demonstrated this for all the world to see.
And it has not yet begun to actually wage the real war in the Ukraine.
Russia has engaged in a partial mobilization to enable the movement of several hundred thousand more troops to the Ukraine. Those mobilized will likely not serve in the Ukraine but free up other professional soldiers, even though those being called up have been fully trained in the past.
Today also marks the day when Russia increased size and population due to the official annexation of four Ukrainian territories. Bear in mind, the people the Russians really care about are the ones in the East and South who identify as Russian.
Given the Russian penchant for planning operations exhaustively, exploring the contingencies out to the nth degree, this seems the most likely explanation for why they have proceeded this way. If so, it has worked like a charm.
What I would expect now is the continued bleeding of the Ukrainian military until the ground freezes by allowing them to gain nominal amounts of territory at the cost of losing large numbers of soldiers – attrition.
At that point, I would expect a final ultimatum and then the mother of all offensives against an exhausted foe with exhausted allies.
Misha, it’s not just all that you describe (which is probably 100% correct) but also that which we don’t see. There is more than one way to win a war. What the Russians did today as part of OPEC+ is kick Dark Brandon right in the balls. According to Helleniscope: the Saudis cut oil production by 2,000,000 barrels a day https://www.helleniscope.com/2022/10/05/opec-russia-defy-the-us-and-cut-oil-production/
Speaking for myself, the Russians and the Saudis (and the Iranians) are now thicker than thieves, which means that Russia is now the hegemon of the Middle East.
I for one am going to keep my eyes on the Israelis and see how they react to all this (given their own side-deals with the Saudis).
Here’s my analysis: if the Russians regroup in Kharkov and Kherson and drive the Ukrainians back, coupled with growing unrest in Western Europe, then the Israelis will see that the Ukraine (which up until now has been their cash-cow) is a wasting asset. The key as I see it are the four new oblasts that the Russians just annexed as they have 85% of the Ukraine’s GDP. This is a massive asset seizure by the Russians, depriving the Ukrainian oligarchs of their wealth.
If that happens, look for some of the Ukrainian oligarchs to start making some side-deals of their own with the Russians. This by the way is doable: back in July, Zelensky stripped three Jewish oligarchs of their Ukrainian citizenship and exiled them. One of them, Ihor Komoloisky, was Zelensky’s political godfather.
At this rate, Russia is going to run it all. Consider the consolidation of the 80% world around them and China, the rise of MAGA and the nationalist parties of Europe, Russia’s emerging energy dominance over Europe and influence in the Middle East . . .
They are already the strongest nuclear power and the largest country by territory in the world. Together with China and India they are unstoppable inasmuch as their power does not stem from finance but from energy and food sourcing.
After they are finished with Ukraine, they will likely consolidate the former Soviet republics to a greater extent and their population will again swell toward 300 million. It’s now at about 150 million with the recent annexations. You can expect Belarus to enter the Federation and perhaps some of the “stans”, maybe even Georgia if they become uber-dominant in the region.
Short of a nuclear war, what can stop them from running the table?
It’s great news for Christian Nationalists and a death knell for globalist Western elites. That’s what scares the hell out of them and why they try to demonize and/or downplay Russia as a weak, minor economy and a gas station posing as a country. Energy is the lifeblood of Western economies, not finance.
It’s also what terrifies them about Trump/DeSantis. They are in line with Putinism/Christian Nationalism and are its domestic expression – regardless of any overt collusion, they are playing the same tune, as are Orban, Meloni, Le Pen, et al.
It’s all one big thing: the active Hand of God.
I believe so. So far, the Russian military presence in Ukraine has, in addition to the poorly-trained and poorly-equipped LDR militias, mostly consisted of Rosgvard paramilitaries, private contractors, and various local/regional forces, with some regulars, airborne and special forces assisting. I don’t recall seeing any of the Russians’ most up-to-date tanks and other heavy equipment, such as Armata tanks (could be wrong, though), and the recent ‘mobilization’ is almost totally reserves and volunteer ex-soldiers.
It appears to me that Russia is using extremely limited forces to drain Ukrainian/NATO militaries and supplies, while slowly increasing them in light of the intensifying counteroffensives. If these militias, paramilitaries, and reserves can cause so much damage and capture so much territory, just imagine what will happen when the regular Russian army steps in.
Russia hasn’t even stepped on the gas yet.
Basil, you’re 100% correct.
I’m glad you mentioned the Donbass militias. Although they are not as mighty or as plentiful as a typical First-world standing army, they have been fighting the regular Ukrainian to a standstill for 8 years now. Think of it: the Ukrainian army has been trained to NATO standards and was in fact the largest NATO-allied army in Europe.
Which pristine units of the professional Russian army compose a hypothetical reserve that has yet to come into play? Among other things, Russia now has a skeleton crew on the border of the Baltics/Finland. Because something like 80% of those forces were sent to Ukraine.
I would suggest the opposite is true: there are very few elements of the ‘regular’ Russian army that haven’t suffered significant attrition in the past seven months. Especially among forces like the VDV and Spetsnaz. Part of the reason for the mobilization order was to be able to indefinitely extend the contracts of the contract soldiers.
Russia is using all their most modern systems in Ukraine that are actually operational. The T-90M is, the T-14 Armata is not. If the war goes on along enough they might get fielded! But a couple dozen new MBTs a year from now is a drop in the bucket considering Russia has lost probably north of 1,300 tanks in the past seven months.
Along other things I’d note that last week, elements of the 27th Guards Motor Rifle Brigade and a BTG of the 237th Tank Regiment attempted multiple counterattacks west towards Kupyansk and got absolutely stomped by the Ukrainians. I think the scenarios being suggested here are wildly overoptimistic.
Nate, you might want to pause and read this insightful essay from Big Serge:
https://bigserge.substack.com/p/politics-by-other-means?utm_source=profile&utm_medium=reader2
We’ve been so Hollywoodized about the nature of war while we forgotten the major thing about: it is politics by kinetic action (I paraphrase von Clausewitz). In other words, we’re looking for the bang-bang while Putin is looking for the ka-ching/ka-ching. And so is the rest of the world, at least that part which isn’t bamboozled by all the muh democracy talk.
I took at look at that essay. In brief, I think ‘Big Serge’ is incorrect on the political ‘buy-in’ of the Russian people for mobilization and a shift to a war economy. Time will tell if he’s correct or not. He also expects a Russian winter offensive, again, we shall see.
His post from September 9 about Ukraine’s counteroffensive has not aged well so far, and his subsequent backpedaling and follow-up predictions have been lacking. Again, a brief summary. I could write paragraphs on the subject if you wished.
Finally, needless to say, I disagree with him that it was a war of necessity for Russia due to existential theat. It was a war of choice driven by imperial hubris. Since you keep linking me things to read I shall return the favor with something that asks the question, what it the price of defeat? Writ large I think it speaks to why morale in the Russian forces fighting the war has cratered.
https://twitter.com/ChrisO_wiki/status/1578535556061233152
Part of the “benefit” of mobilization is that contract soldiers can no longer refuse to go to Ukraine, refuse to fight, and their contracts have been extended indefinitely. This gets you additional warm bodies (for now), just not necessarily effective ones.
If you’re feeling sad, if you’re feeling blue
Caring Canada has a Kill Bill – just for you!
EUTHANASIA’S SLIPPERY SLOPE
https://www.bitchute.com/video/xBBcQP0W7Qs5/
[Video – 09:07]
…and they’re coming for the children too!