Or a second chance for normalcy?
It depends on whether Volodymir Zelinskiy is allowed to win the presidency of Ukraine.
According to Ukrainian exit polls, it looks like Volodymir Zelinskiy, a comedian and sit-com star, has grabbed the lion’s share of the votes. The distribution so far is Zelinskiy at 30%, Poroshenko at 18% and Timoshenko at 14%. As nobody has received the requisite 51% of the vote, there will likely be a run-off between Zelinskiy and Poroshenko (the incumbent).
The situation, however, is fluid as Timoshenko has yet to concede defeat and feels very strongly that Poroshenko rigged the system against her (which is not impossible given the rampant corruption that Ukraine post-Maidan is renowned for). Regardless, it is inevitable that there will be a run-off in two weeks between the two top vote-getters.
Having said that, Zelinskiy’s surprising win says a lot about the situation in Ukraine, as he is open to closer ties to Russia. This speaks volumes against the US State Dept/Fake News Industrial Complex which incessantly propagates anti-Russian propaganda. He is, of course, renowned for his stands against the endemic corruption which has plagued Ukrainian society. (His massively popular situation comedy was popular precisely because it presented an unflattering presentation of modern Ukraine.)
Now, even if Zelinskiy is allowed to win, it won’t be clear sailing for him. Mainly for two reasons: one, there are too many vested interests in maintaining the present corrupt status quo. Secondly, there are many, heavily-armed neo-Nazi, anti-Russian militias which operate freely. These militias were the spearhead of the Maidan coup which overthrew Viktor Yanukovich in 2014.
The problem, however, may not be his victory but the opposite: that is to say, what will happen if Poroshenko (who is massively unpopular) somehow ekes out a bare majority. Nobody –not even his supporters–will be fooled by this and worse, the present kleptocracy will continue to erode the very foundations of the modern Ukrainian state.
Zelinskiy, whatever his inexperience, represents a chance to turn things around in that benighted nation. The vast majority of his voters (who are overwhelmingly young) are completely on board with his reformist program, even if that means burying the hatchet with Putin. Zelinskiy, who campaigned in both Russian as well as Ukrainian, has more-or-less conceded that the Crimea is not coming back to Ukraine any time soon.
A Poroshenko win, on the other hand, will lead to more violence which will probably cause the present nation to bifurcate completely, with Russia simply annexing the entire Eastern regions. Even worse, the European Union, that is to say, Germany and France, will not come to Poroshenko’s defense for any reason whatsoever. (Germany for instance, has refused to raise its military spending –as promised–or give up on the Nordstream II project, despite all the protestations of the State Dept.)
The elephant in the room as far as the Orthodox Churches are concerned, of course, is the new sect which Patriarch Bartholomew and President Poroshenko birthed in Kiev. Poroshenko placed all his electoral eggs in the “autocephalous” basket and it backfired on him totally. Bartholomew, likewise, has egg all over his face given the outcome of yesterday’s election. I imagine that the new schismatic sect (UCO) will continue to wither both in legitimacy and in numbers.
Certainly, there will be more contretemps, pratfalls, incidents, and surprises to follow. In the meantime, if you would like a more in-depth analysis, we ask that you kindly take the time to watch this latest episode from The Duran. (And be sure and hit the “subscribe” button, these guys are good.)
The OCU is not the will of God. It will crumble. I pray that CP Bartholomew repents of all the damage that he has done to holy Orthodoxy.
Oh, they’ll just have another violent coup if they don’t get their way. Elections don’t matter in Ukraine. We learned that in 2014.