What Would Happen if a Nuclear Warhead Detonated Above . . . ? UPDATE: 08/23/2023

USINDOPACOM Statement on DPRK Launch

 

U.S. Indo-Pacific command: We are aware of the DPRK’s [North Korea] launch using ballistic missile technology, which despite its failure, is a brazen violation of multiple unanimous UN Security Council resolutions, raises tensions, and risks destabilizing the security situation in the region and beyond. 

This  launch involved technologies that are directly related to the DPRK intercontinental ballistic missile program. 

We are assessing the situation in close coordination with our allies and partners. 

We have assessed that this event did not pose an immediate threat to U.S. personnel, territory, or that of our allies, but will continue to  monitor the situation. 

The U.S. commitment to homeland defense and the defense of the Republic of Korea and Japan, remains ironclad.

Statement by the Chief Cabinet Secretary

[Editor Note:  If any of you know Biden, tell him to back off North Korea.  In the meantime, I’m going to call my buddy, Trump, and tell him to take Kim Jong Un out for a drink and some cigars to sooth his nerves.  –  Others are starting to speculate Maui was attacked.  China is an unlikely culprit.  They would NEVER risk their place at the table with BRICS, not with 100 companies waiting in line to take their place.  Plus, they, too, have been getting attacked with unconventional warfare in the form of flooding, deaths and damages.]   

Chief Cabinet Secretary Statement on the North Korean ballistic missile launch that fell outside of Japan’s exclusive economic zone (EEZ). 

  1. At around 3:51 today, North Korea forced a launch using ballistic  missile technology that passed over the airspace between the main island  of Okinawa and Miyakojima. It is presumed that the single rocket that  was launched separated into multiple parts, and all of them fell outside  Japan’s exclusive economic zone (EEZ). The government will promptly use  J-Alert and M-net to convey information to the public, carry out safety  checks in areas that are judged to have passed through, and provide  information and safety measures to ships and aircraft underway. We are  taking necessary measures such as confirmation, and we are doing our  best to respond, but information such as damage reports has not been  confirmed at present.
  2. Relevant countries, including Japan, and the international  community have repeatedly called on North Korea to fully comply with the  relevant United Nations Security Council resolutions, including this  time, and condemned its provocative actions such as repeated ballistic  missile launches. has called for the abandonment of nuclear and missile  development. Against this backdrop, it is extremely regrettable that  North Korea once again carried out a launch that violated UN Security  Council resolutions, especially one that flew over the Japanese  archipelago.
  3. North Korea has repeatedly launched ballistic missiles, including  ICBM (intercontinental ballistic missile) class, and these series of  provocative actions, including the latest launch, pose an even more  serious and imminent threat to Japan’s security. In addition, it is a  serious problem related to public safety. In addition, the repeated  launches that passed over the sky, including this time, are extremely  problematic from the perspective of ensuring the safety of not only  aircraft and ships, but also the residents of the areas where it is  judged that they passed over the sky. be. Such actions by North Korea  violate relevant United Nations Security Council resolutions and the  Japan-DPRK Pyongyang Declaration prohibiting any launches using  ballistic missile technology by North Korea, and threaten the peace and  security of the region and the international community. This is a  serious challenge to the entire international community, including  Japan. Japan lodged a strong protest against North Korea, conveyed the  strong indignation of the Japanese people, and condemned it in the  strongest possible terms.
  4. Japan once again urges North Korea to immediately and fully  implement the relevant United Nations Security Council resolutions and  to take concrete actions toward the comprehensive resolution of  outstanding issues of concern such as the abductions, nuclear and  missile issues. .
  5. Based on the prompt and accurate provision of information and  instructions from the Prime Minister on safety confirmation, etc., the  government will continue to take the following measures to ensure the  peace and security of Japan and the safety and security of the people.  It is assumed that(1) Focusing on the  areas where it is judged that they have passed through, check again  whether there is any damage caused by falling objects, etc.(2) Ensure thorough  information gathering and analysis, including future trends in North  Korea, and provide information to the public in a timely and accurate  manner.(3) Japan will prevent unforeseen situations from occurring by constantly taking the necessary posture.(4) Japan will  continue to steadily implement its own measures and measures based on  relevant UN Security Council resolutions. In addition, we will further  strengthen cooperation and coordination with relevant countries,  including the United States and South Korea, as well as the  international community, and work to ensure the effectiveness of  relevant UN Security Council resolutions. A response will be considered  as soon as possible.(5) Japan will  further strengthen the Japan-U.S. Alliance and promote related efforts,  including Japan-U.S.-ROK cooperation, in order to respond to such  unforeseen situations and to promote measures against North Korea by the  international community. Promote further.(6) Based on the  National Security Strategy, etc., steadily implement various measures to  fundamentally strengthen defense capabilities, including counterattack  capabilities. Through these efforts, we will strengthen our deterrence  and response capabilities.
  6. I would like the people of Japan to calmly lead their lives as usual.

***

Before you consider what I’ve written, you should know that North Korea warned nuclear weapons could be used in response to the deployment of US weapons in South Korea.  https://www.theglobeandmail.com

So what did the U.S. do?

We deployed a nuclear-armed ballistic missile submarine (SSBN) to South Korea.  https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/7/18/us-deploys-nuclear-armed-submarine-to-South-Korea

The article below was adapted from “City on Fire” by Lynn Eden, originally published in the January 2004 issue of the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists.  Called, “What would happen if an 800-kiloton nuclear warhead detonated above midtown Manhattan?”  https://thebulletin.org/2015/02/what-would-happen-if-an-800-kiloton-nuclear-warhead-detonated-above-midtown-manhattan/

***

What Would Happen if a Nuclear Warhead Detonated Above . . . ?

Intercontinental ballistic missiles are believed to carry a total of approximately 1,000 strategic nuclear warheads that can hit the US less than 30 minutes after being launched. Of this total, about 700 warheads are rated at 800 kilotons; that is, each has the explosive power of 800,000 tons of TNT. What follows is a description of the consequences of the detonation of a single such warhead over . . . (Will fill in the blank below.)

The warhead would probably be detonated slightly more than a mile above to maximize the damage created by its blast wave. Within a few tenths of millionths of a second after detonation, the center of the warhead would reach a temperature of roughly 200 million degrees Fahrenheit (about 100 million degrees Celsius), or about four to five times the temperature at the center of the sun.

A ball of superheated air would form, initially expanding outward at millions of miles per hour. It would act like a fast-moving piston on the surrounding air, compressing it at the edge of the fireball and creating a shockwave of vast size and power.

After one second, the fireball would be roughly a mile in diameter. It would have cooled from its initial temperature of many millions of degrees to about 16,000 degrees Fahrenheit, roughly 4,000 degrees hotter than the surface of the sun.

On a clear day with average weather conditions, the enormous heat and light from the fireball would almost instantly ignite fires over a total area of about 100 square miles.

Hurricane of fire:  Within seconds after the detonation, fires set within a few miles of the fireball would burn violently. These fires would force gigantic masses of heated air to rise, drawing cooler air from surrounding areas toward the center of the fire zone from all directions.

Single Gigantic Fire (Maui)

As the massive winds drove flames into areas where fires had not yet fully developed, the fires set by the detonation would begin to merge. Within tens of minutes of the detonation, fires from near and far would join to form a single, gigantic fire. The energy released by this mass fire would be 15 to 50 times greater than the energy produced by the nuclear detonation.

The mass fire, or firestorm, would quickly increase in intensity, heating enormous volumes of air that would rise at speeds approaching 300 miles per hour. This chimney effect would pull cool air from outside the fire zone towards the center of the fire at speeds of hundreds of miles per hour. These superheated ground winds of more than hurricane force would further intensify the fire. At the edge of the fire zone, the winds would be powerful enough to uproot trees three feet in diameter and suck people from outside the fire into it.

Uprooted Tree (Maui)

The inrushing winds would drive the flames from burning buildings horizontally along the ground, filling city streets with flames and firebrands, breaking in doors and windows, and causing the fire to jump, sometimes hundreds of feet, swallowing anything not already violently combusting.

These above-hurricane-force ground winds would have average air temperatures well above the boiling point of water. The targeted area would be transformed into a huge hurricane of fire, producing a lethal environment throughout the entire fire zone.

Ground zero:  The fireball would vaporize the structures directly below it and produce an immense blast wave and high-speed winds, crushing even heavily built concrete structures within a couple miles of ground zero.

Concrete Structure Crushed (Maui)

The blast would tear apart high-rise buildings and expose their contents to the solar temperatures; it would spread fires by exposing ignitable surfaces, releasing flammable materials, and dispersing burning materials.

Building Exploding into Flames (Maui)

About one half to three quarters of a mile from ground zero, light from the fireball would melt asphalt in the streets, burn paint off walls, and melt metal surfaces within a half second of the detonation. Roughly one second later, the blast wave and 750-mile-per-hour winds would arrive, flattening buildings and tossing burning cars into the air like leaves in a windstorm.  The interiors of vehicles and buildings in line of sight of the fireball would explode into flames.

For a split second the fireball would shine 10,000 times brighter than a desert sun at noon.  All combustible materials illuminated by the fireball would spew fire and black smoke.

Vegetation Exploding into Flames (Maui)

Grass, vegetation, and leaves on trees would explode into flames; the surface of the ground would explode into superheated dust. Any flammable material inside buildings (paper, curtains, upholstery) that was directly exposed to the fireball would burst into flame. The surfaces of statues would melt; marble surfaces exposed to the fireball would crack, pop, and possibly evaporate.

Engulfed Structures Crushed (Maui)

At this distance from the fireball, it would take about four seconds for the blast wave to arrive. As it passed over, the blast wave would engulf all structures and crush them; it would generate ferocious winds of 400 to 500 miles per hour that would persist for a few seconds.

The high winds would tear structural elements from buildings and cause them to disintegrate explosively into smaller pieces. Some of these pieces would become destructive projectiles, causing further damage. The superheated, dust-laden winds would be strong enough to overturn trucks and buses.

Warped Aluminum Surfaces, Melted Asphalt & Melted Tires (Maui)

Two miles from ground zero would be obliterated. Two and half miles from ground zero, the fireball would appear 2,700 times brighter than a desert sun at noon. Thermal radiation would melt and warp aluminum surfaces, ignite the tires of autos, and turn exposed skin to charcoal, before the blast wave arrived and ripped apart the buildings.

Modified by the Water (Maui)

Three to nine miles from ground zero: fires would start simultaneously in large areas on both sides of. . .  Although the direction of the fiery winds in regions would be modified by the water, the overall wind pattern from these huge neighboring fire zones would be similar to that of a single mass fire.

Three miles from ground zero, the fireball would be as bright as 1,900 suns and deliver more than five times the thermal energy deposited at the perimeter of the mass fire at Hiroshima.  Clothes worn by people in the direct line of sight of the fireball would burst into flames or melt, and uncovered skin would be charred, causing third-degree and fourth-degree burns.

It would take 12 to 14 seconds for the blast wave to travel three miles after the fireball’s initial flash of light.  At this distance, the blast wave would last for about three seconds and be accompanied by winds of 200 to 300 miles per hour. Residential structures would be destroyed; high-rises would be at least heavily damaged.

Fires would rage everywhere within five miles of ground zero. At a distance of 5.35 miles from the detonation, the light flash from the fireball would deliver twice the thermal energy experienced at the edge of the mass fire at Hiroshima the light and heat to surfaces would approximate that created by 600 desert suns at noon.

Windows Shattered (Maui)

*Wind speed at this distance would be 70 to 100 miles per hour.

Buildings of heavy construction would suffer little structural damage, but all exterior windows would be shattered, and non-supporting interior walls and doors would be severely damaged or blown down. Black smoke would effuse from wood houses as paint burned off surfaces and furnishings ignited.

Six to seven miles from ground zero, the fireball would appear 300 times brighter than the desert sun at noon. Anyone in the direct light of the fireball would suffer third degree burns to their exposed skin. The firestorm could engulf neighborhoods as far as seven miles away from ground zero, since these outlying areas would receive the same amount of heat as did the areas at the edge of the mass fire at Hiroshima.

Knocked Out Doors, Interior Walls & Windows (Maui)

Nine miles from ground zero, the fireball would be about 100 times brighter than the sun, bright enough to cause first- and second-degree burns to those in line of sight. About 36 seconds after the fireball, the shockwave would arrive and knock out all the windows, along with many interior building walls and some doors.

No survivors. Within tens of minutes, everything within approximately five to seven miles would be engulfed by a gigantic firestorm. The fire zone would cover a total area of 100 square miles (X square kilometers). The firestorm would rage for three to six hours. Air temperatures in the fire zone would likely average 400 to 500 degrees Fahrenheit (200 to 260 Celsius).

After the fire burned out, the street pavement would be so hot that even tracked vehicles could not pass over it for days. Buried, unburned material from collapsed buildings throughout the fire zone could burst into flames when exposed to air—months after the firestorm had ended.

Those who tried to escape through the streets would have been incinerated by the hurricane-force winds filled with firebrands and flames. Even those able to find shelter in the lower-level sub-basements of massive buildings would likely suffocate from fire-generated gases or be cooked alive as their shelters heated to oven-like conditions.

The fire would extinguish all life and destroy almost everything else. Tens of miles downwind of the area of immediate destruction, radioactive fallout would begin to arrive within a few hours of the detonation.

But that is another story.

* * *

I’m wondering if an edited version of the above could be called, “What would happen if a nuclear warhead was detonated above Maui.”  Maybe not as big, but a warhead nevertheless. 

Is this the “scare event” some have been talking about? 

Radiation could be a reason they would have blocked people from certain exits in Maui.  *Also gale-force wind gusts did reach 67 miles per hour in Maui County.  https://www.reuters.com/graphics/)

If it was just a fire, why they can’t they find more than 100 of the estimated 1000+ unaccounted for bodies?  As George, a former diener/pathology tech, will tell you, it takes VERY high temperatures to incinerate bodies into nothing.  That they can’t find the physical remains of so many is truly concerning if we’re going keep calling this Maui thing a “wild fire.” 

At this point, the world is too unstable to rule anything out.   Even a nuclear attack.      

Comments

  1. No. I’m sorry. I don’t mean to be rude, but I’m sticking with a more rational explanation for the destruction of Lahaina. As far as I can tell, the coinciding of natural conditions and human stupidity allowed some sparks to ignite a firestorm, probably from downed wires. Due to a hurricane to the south of the islands and a strong high-pressure system to the north, the wind sustained itself at gale force that day and accelerated to storm force during gusts as it rushed down treeless mountain canyons. Electrical wires that should have been buried underground in such an arid, wind-prone section of the island were left standing on wooden poles. The state senator whose district covers Lahaina has tried for years to pass legislation to force Hawaiian Electric to bury those lines, but he has been unsuccessful, the utility citing the prohibitive cost. Poles snapped under pressure from long, heavy lines swinging violently in the blasts of wind. Lines came down, sparks flare up and ignited brush fires.

    The dry grasses, halekoa and miscellaneous brush left untrimmed at the bases of the utility poles flared up in the mauka (upslope) areas above the town. Many homeowners had planted trees and shrubbery to beautify their houses and protect themselves from the daily glare of the sun. Such vegetation later became kindling that helped to ignite the houses as the fire came rushing down the hill. Once the firestorm had reached the abundant fuel of old redwood houses and vehicles full of gasoline, explosions occurred and the blaze became intense. The fire heated up considerably and caused its own convection blowtorch many times the force of the blast of heat you get from the opened door of a Thanksgiving oven. Petroleum-based asphalt streets melted and ignited. Things that don’t normally burn burned. The whole town became an inferno. Human bodies trapped in cars, houses and apartments lost the sinew needed to hold their bones together. They fell apart when the coroners showed up days later to collect them.

    I know that our Lord told us that we must call no man, “Thou fool!”, but if I were to put myself in danger of hellfire, I would this band of local fools responsible: Maui Fire Co. didn’t leave a crew at Lahaina to make sure the morning fire didn’t flare up again. Haw’n Electric Co. didn’t have the ability to shut off the power…or so they say. The emergency manager on Maui froze like a deer in the headlights and failed to hit the siren switch. The water manager in Honolulu didn’t have the common sense to allow the Maui Land company to allow water to flow through the pipes for the returning fire trucks. Maui Police Dept. closed down the bypass and didn’t have the foresight to use their vehicles to direct traffic around obstacles so people could get the hell out of town from Front Street and other roads. Worst of all, the Maui school administrators sent their latchkey pupils home for the day due to high winds – the very winds that would later whip the town into a burning furnace. Many of the parents were at work.

    There is a familiar word that starts with “cluster-” that I would use in less-polite company to describe the utter incompetence of the local government officials who managed to turn a nasty fire into an unmitigated disaster. The stunning stupidity of the day’s actors is literally breathtaking. I am hoping for more resignations accompanied by remorseful apologies to be forthcoming. Anyway, that’s my story and I’m sticking with it until I hear a more plausible explanation.

    God have mercy on those who perished in the blaze. I’m suspecting that many of their bodies will never be recovered from the ashes or the ocean and the actual number of casualties will have to be deduced from the number of those missing.

    • I just updated this piece with the following information:

      North Korea warned nuclear weapons could be used in response to the deployment of US weapons in South Korea. https://www.theglobeandmail.com

      So what did the U.S. do?

      We deployed a nuclear-armed ballistic missile submarine (SSBN) to South Korea. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/7/18/us-deploys-nuclear-armed-submarine-to-South-Korea

      I don’t think we can take anything for granted anymore. (By the way, it’s not rude to question anything on this blog. It would be pretty boring if you didn’t. George gets tired of hearing me talk.)

      I kept wondering why Biden didn’t go right away and then I looked it up. Radiation levels are extremely dangerous immediately after a nuclear detonation, but the levels reduce rapidly, in just hours to a few days.

  2. Speaking of North Korea’s nuclear weapons, you will recall the bogus red alert that all of us in Hawaii received under the previous governor, David Igè on January 13, 2018.

    BALLISTIC MISSILE THREAT INBOUND TO HAWAII. SEEK IMMEDIATE SHELTER. THIS IS NOT A DRILL.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:2018_Hawaii_missile_alert.jpg

    Well, another idiot at the state government hit the wrong button and mistakenly sent out that alert. It seemed like the attack on Pearl Harbor all over again. People who tend to freak out freaked out. I told them that Hawaii is such a small and distant target, the missile will probably miss us. In the meantime, good old Gov. Igè couldn’t find the password to his Twitter account to tell everybody that it was a mistake and put us all at ease, so we were in suspense for 38 minutes until he could rectify the situation. Brilliant leadership we have here! Igè still got reelected in November of that year. Go figure.

    Regarding your nuclear hypothesis, allow me again to disagree with you. Joe Biden’s two-week tardiness to the party, shall we say, is more likely due to his indifference than to an actual nuclear explosion. He has spent a lot of time on vacation during his presidency, and the weather on the beach in Delaware is balmy this time of year, and Hawai’i is a lock for his reëlection anyway, so he probably decided that he just didn’t give a damn what happened in Hawai’i on August 8. “No comment.”, he said when he was first told. That’s our head of state, folks. What a guy!

    Today he finally showed up in Lahaina and slurred a speech printed out for him. In it, he promised Maui “all the aid that it takes for as long as it takes”. Where have we heard that one before? It’s not his own money anyway, so why not promise the moon to Hawai’i and its loyal Democrats?

    I see what you’re saying about our nuclear brinksmanship, but we have had troops in Korea longer than I have been alive and Comrade Kim in Pyongyang must assume that some of our ships have nuclear missiles aboard. Even so, the U.S. is playing chicken in Korea and especially in Ukraine. Let’s hope the next president is not Joe Biden and that he/she dials down the international provocations.

  3. My mind is open:

    Directed Energy Weapons
    https://www.globalresearch.ca/direct-energy-weapons-create-forest-brush-fires/5828967

    🆘
    What is planned now are climate and weather wars, wars in which earthquakes and volcanoes, floods and droughts, hurricanes and monsoon rains will play a role.“

    https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2018/08/how-hawaii-plans-to-be-the-first-us-state-to-run-entirely-on-clean-energy/

    A Catholic nun, medical doctor who took on the huge work of enlightening the public to the dangers of the global nuclear scenario, and not so much about the dangers of so-called ‘nuclear war’ involving mega-tons of explosions and continents laid waste, but the real ‘nuclear biological war’ that began in 1945 with the creation and dissemination of carcinogenic and mutagenic synthetic radio-nuclides.

    https://rachels-carson-of-today.blogspot.com/2019/06/rosalie-bertell-honouring-true-rachel.html?m=1

    OUR MILITARY…ASSET OR ALBATROSS?” FATHER PHILIP BERRIGAN
    http://geo-terrorism.blogspot.com/2012/01/our-militaryasset-or-albatross-philip.html

    What the media won’t tell you about the Maui fires.
    https://www.globalresearch.ca/media-wont-tell-maui-fires/5829614

    Jeff Bezos an Zuck buy up by Maui lands.
    https://nypost.com/2021/11/04/as-jeff-bezos-buys-up-maui-hawaiian-locals-hope-for-best/

    Oh those laser weapons!
    https://www.mintpressnews.com/new-bill-would-see-us-taxpayers-subsidize-experimental-israel-laser-weapons/256485/

    Faith in Christ during these dark times. Amen

  4. I think we would know if it were a nuclear device.

    Also, I’m not sure where the author got some of her info, but it’s not quite right. The yield of anything targeting Manhattan would be much higher and leave a radius of about five miles as irradiated ground with no discernable structures. I once read about what would happen if a twenty megaton device were detonated over Chicago.

    Lil Kim isn’t going to nuke America. He likes breathing (and eating). It’s all bluster. No need to worry.

    • RE: “I think we would know if it were a nuclear device.”

      How would we know? – Cause they didn’t tell us about the origin of the virus or about the safety and efficacy of the vaccines. Well, they did tell us. They just didn’t tell us the truth. It took a lot of research to uncover everything they didn’t tell us.

      Remember when you posted this in May 2020: “This is priceless: – Can’t We Just Say It? https://redstate.com/streiff/2020/06/07/850911-n139311

      Lynn Eden is the associate director for research at Stanford University’s Center for International Security and Cooperation. She wrote the piece for the people behind the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists who inform the public about threats to the survival and development of humanity with respect to nuclear weapons. We’re 90 seconds to midnight, BTW.

      • A nuclear device would set off seismographs, for one thing.

        But I misread something she wrote above and, rereading it, I take back the comment regarding her information. It may all be accurate for the size of the blast she describes. But I think NY would warrant a multimegaton warhead at the least. A number of the warheads aimed at US cities may be up in the eighteen to twenty megaton range (R36M2’s). It would take something around at least 5 megatons to take out all of NYC.

        • North Korea is a concern. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3wV58OaiH7s

          They have been credited with the ransomware attacks on hospitals groups that were in the news not too long ago, and it wasn’t the first time. One or more of the recent groups that were targeted (I did some work for Prospect back in the mid-1990s) had to reroute patients from their ERs to other facilities. They eventually had to cut back on the services they offered and in some cases close their doors altogether.

          IMO, Biden is on a war path with North Korea. He is literally daring them to do something and I think it’s possible that they did.

          I do understand. It’s easier to believe that a fire of that magnitude, SOMETHING THAT HAS ONLY OCCURRED ONCE IN THE U.S., happened within those 10 square miles because the alternative is too difficult to fathom. But listen to what the people have described. This was NOT a normal fire. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QZW_zUkGPKE

          When they locate all those other people who should still be there, we will know it is not the “sum of all our fears.”

          ***

          North Korea asserts first evidence of tactical nuclear weapons
          Published
          28 March

          North Korea has revealed small nuclear warheads, which it says can be fitted on to short-range missiles.

          The North has long claimed it has tactical nuclear weapons, capable of hitting targets in South Korea.

          But the photos published in its state newspaper on Tuesday are the first time it has provided evidence.

          However, it is impossible to verify whether they are the real deal. Until North Korea tests one of these devices, we are left guessing.

          Pyongyang has spent the past fortnight firing a barrage of what it says are nuclear-capable weapons, while simulating nuclear attacks on Seoul.

          Admittedly it is hard to keep track of North Korea’s missile launches these days. The tests in isolation no longer generate the headlines they used to, but if we look at them all together there is much we can learn.

          North Korea says it is punishing the US and South Korea for holding their largest military drills in years. The allies have been practising how to defeat the North in the event of an attack. This is not a scenario its leader Kim Jong Un relishes.

          Only this is not a typical North Korean protest. In the past it has responded to such drills by firing off a mix of short, medium, and long-range missiles, and perhaps some artillery shells.

          What do we know about North Korea? Mar 2023

          This time, over the course of two weeks, Pyongyang has launched its most powerful intercontinental ballistic missile, which can reach anywhere on the US mainland, in theory.

          It has fired missiles from a submarine, and from what appears to be an underground silo. Its military has simulated a nuclear attack on a South Korean airfield.

          And Kim Jong Un has unveiled a new underwater drone, which he claims can fire nuclear weapons under the sea to unleash a “super-scale radioactive tsunami” and destroy enemy warships.

          On top of this, it has now unveiled nuclear warheads it claims can be fitted to these weapons.

          This is an eclectic and troubling line-up.

          Analyst Ellen Kim, from the Centre for Strategic and International Studies, described it to me as “the North Korean equivalent of a fashion show” – a nod to the Dior-style jacket Mr Kim’s daughter was spotted wearing to one of the launches.

          Analysts, including Ms Kim, are concerned by the diversity of the collection that has been paraded this season. Pyongyang has unveiled new and more sophisticated, weapons, which can be fired from sea and land to target the US, South Korea, and Japan.

          “Before, we did not know they were able to fire cruise missiles from submarines, or missiles from under the ground. Its weapons are becoming much more difficult to track and intercept,” Ms Kim said.

          This raises the nuclear threat North Korea poses.

          Take the cruise missiles fired from a submarine as an example. These missiles are the most concerning to Yang Uk, a weapons expert from the Asan Institute in Seoul. As he explains, firing a missile from under the water makes it harder to detect ahead of launch. After launch, cruise missiles fly low, and can be manoeuvred mid-flight, to outsmart missile defences.

          Kim Jong Un has always feared the US will attack his country first, and wipe out its weapons before he has the chance to use them. The message he appears to be sending with this array of tests, is that the North now has the ability to strike back, or even strike first. It is difficult to destroy weapons concealed underground or underwater.

          In other words he is saying “don’t think about attacking us”.

          However, we should exercise caution. Mr Kim has a tendency to exaggerate his military’s abilities.

          The lingering question has always been whether North Korea actually has the nuclear warheads to attach to these missiles. Most of the weapons displayed recently would only be able to carry a very small, lightweight warhead. Until now, we have seen no proof Pyongyang has managed to develop them.

          On Tuesday, it provided the first piece of evidence. Photos published in the main state newspaper show Kim Jong Un inspecting a row of what it said were small nuclear warheads.

          There is no way to verify the warheads are what they say. This is why the intelligence community has been holding its breath for so long, waiting for said nuclear test.

          The moment North Korea is able to build miniaturised warheads on a mass scale, it the moment its simulated threats become real, and it can strike South Korea and Japan with nuclear weapons.

          There are some who argue the US and the international community should be doing more to get the North back to the negotiating table, to prevent this nuclear test. Talks between the two sides have but stalled for more than four years. But Pyongyang has shown no sign it wants to talk. It tends to pick the moment when it thinks it has the most to gain.

          Kim Jong Un is often accused of exaggerating North Korea’s military capacity.

          With China and Russia refusing to punish North Korea at the UN Security Council, it can continue developing its weapons without consequence. Why stop now? The better its weapons, the stronger its hand, and it still has more to prove.

          In addition to miniaturised warheads, it is yet to demonstrate that its regular warheads can survive a full intercontinental flight. Currently, the North tests long-range missiles by firing them high into space. It also wants to develop a more sophisticated ICBM, that does not need to be fuelled before launch, and so can be fired with less warning.

          Yang Uk believes Kim Jong Un is also being driven by a desperate situation at home. With a flailing economy, and his people going hungry, his advancing nuclear weapons programme is “the only card he has left to play”, Yang says.

          North Korea food crisis looms behind displays of military prowess North Korea therefore looks set to forge ahead, developing an ever more diverse and deadlier range of weapons.

          For Ellen Kim, only one thing is certain: “More tests will come.”

          https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-65085542

  5. If you want to look into something else “coincidental” look into Kelowna, BC Canada. It’s Canada’s first “Smart City” and is currently experiencing massive wildfires.

    • You know the saying, “Orange is the new black?” Well now, fires are the new black. Every one who is anyone is having fires.

  6. Five interesting questions for Oprah and her billionaire buddies:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D3Bayh1Sgbc

  7. Michael Bauman says

    John 16:33 KJV
    “These things I have spoken to you so that he might have peace. In the world you will have tribulation but be of good cheer, I have over come the world”

    AND

    Matthew 4:17
    “Repent, for the Kingdom of Heaven is at hand.”

    This is the day the Lord has made, let us rejoice and be glad in it. Only repentance overcomes sin, evil and destruction–not politics or muckraking

  8. Radioactive Man says

    How to rule out a nuke

    One do a projection on nukemap

    https://nuclearsecrecy.com/nukemap/?&kt=150&lat=20.873877&lng=-156.677678&hob_psi=5&hob_ft=5443&ff=50&psi=20,5,1&zm=13.029713413100602

    Two look for blast and overpressure damage on before and after images or lack thereof

    https://twitter.com/Astro_Woody/status/1694002932725727741

    No nuke!

    Impossible to cover up for long, no way to hide many square miles of radioactive contamination, survivors getting radiation sickness, fried electronics.

    US, Russia and China have satellites that will detect any aboveground nuke going off.

    • If Maui was attacked, how would we know what kind of weapon was even used?

      “Although fallout contamination may linger for years and even decades, the dominant lethal effects last from days to weeks, and contemporary civil defense recommendations are for survivors to stay inside for at least 48 hours while the radiation decreases.” If this is true, they are safe now (which could explain why Biden decided to stay on vacation until now).

      https://thereader.mitpress.mit.edu/devastating-effects-of-nuclear-weapons-war/

  9. Anonymous II says

    Is Yevgeny Prigozhin really dead? Not everyone is convinced…

    In 2019, Yevgeny Prigozhin was briefly reported to have died after an An-72 transport plane crashed in the Democratic Republic of the Congo. The embassy said two Russians had been onboard the plane, which was also carrying members of the DRC’s presidential staff.

    The Wagner chief reappeared three days later, however, reports of his death having been greatly exaggerated.

    As Prigozhin’s business jet crashed on Wednesday in a likely political assassination, there was again an air of doubt or hesitation to declare that the Kremlin-connected businessman could actually be dead this time.

    “There is one huge caveat to the early reporting,” wrote Keir Giles, a senior consulting fellow on the Russia and Eurasia programme at Chatham House. “It’s been announced that a passenger by the name of Yevgeniy Prigozhin was onboard. But it is also known that multiple individuals have changed their name to Yevgeniy Prigozhin, as part of his efforts to obfuscate his travels. So until we know for certain that it’s the right Prigozhin, let’s not be surprised if he pops up shortly in a new video from Africa.”

    After Prigozhin launched his abortive military uprising against the Kremlin in June, Russian investigators leaked documents from his house showing he held extra passports for possible body doubles who traveled in his name. There were also pictures of Prigozhin wearing various disguises, including heavy beards, aviator sunglasses and foreign military uniforms.

    Prigozhin’s own persona as an agent of chaos and media troll has only served as grist for the conspiracy theories: isn’t this all a bit too convenient? Fontanka media on Thursday reported that Prigozhin’s body may have been left too disfigured by the crash and ensuing fire to be identified by normal methods.

    “And to disappear forever, having taken one of his many spare passports, a burnt-out airplane is a good way to do it,” wrote one prominent Russian political scientist on social media. “The crows won’t collect the bones, the remains are in ashes, the trail has gone cold.”

    “I think it’s absolutely unavoidable that 50% of the population would always be convinced that he just escaped and that was his way out,” said Andrei Soldatov, a Russian journalist and expert on the security services. “This kind of conspiracy theory will always be very popular, especially given his background.”

    Telegram channels close to Wagner quickly declared the plane had been downed by a surface-to-air missile fired by the Russian military. Tsargrad, a hardline conservative news agency, said Prigozhin’s jet may have been blown up by a device onboard, which would widen the cast of those who could be behind the crash.

    See: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/aug/24/is-yevgeny-prigozhin-really-dead-not-everyone-is-convinced

    • ” But it is also known that multiple individuals have changed their name to Yevgeniy Prigozhin, as part of his efforts to obfuscate his travels. So until we know for certain that it’s the right Prigozhin, let’s not be surprised if he pops up shortly in a new video from Africa. ”

      This reminds me of the Battle of Shrewsbury in Henry IV, Part 1;
      where Henry had several people dressed up as if they were him.
      They were chased and killed one-by-one by the Earl of Douglas,
      until he finally ran out of steam and never got to the right one.

  10. What would happen if a COVID warhead detonated – again?

    CDC | Risk Assessment Summary for SARS CoV-2
    Sublineage BA.2.86 | August 23, 2023, 10:10 AM EDT

    https://www.cdc.gov/respiratory-viruses/whats-new/covid-19-variant.html

    ‘ … BA.2.86 may be more capable of causing infection in people who have
    previously had COVID-19 or who have received COVID-19 vaccines. … ‘

    Lumping those who have been ‘vaccinated’ in with those who have had
    COVID and recovered is political ass-covering of the highest order…

  11. Here are a couple of comments from local residents who know Lahaina well. They are reacting to the unethical “journalism” of one Eric E. West, an opportunistic real estate agent on Maui who appears to be stirring the pot for his own notoriety.

    Mistah_Conrad_Jones

    “As a West Side resident who experienced the wind conditions that day first hand, this is exactly correct, and represents the real “Science” behind the intense heat of the fire. The 80+ mph gusts absolutely created a blowtorch effect. Anyone who was actually here to experience that day knows what I’m talking about.

    “Those who were not here that day and are not affected by this are very fortunate to not be dealing with the grief, heartbreak, fear and anger, not to mention the economic shitstorm that’ll be raining down on us for the next few years. Perhaps some of them can use their spare time and energy to imagine what it must be like for each of us here, and the uncertainty our future holds, instead of imagining that the government they despise of deployed “lasers” and “directed heat weapons” to intentionally start this fire – based on a river of molten aluminum for their evidence. This would be funny if it weren’t so sad and disrespectful.”

    TIC321

    (I’m) “From Lahaina as well. I know first hand of our locals who are friends of mine that lost everything and none of them even said anything about lasers or any weapons used. It’s all BS. The mass majority of these conspiracies are from people who aren’t even from Maui who do nothing but watch tiktoks and absorb to social media all day. Like a commenter said here. Conspiracies are like a religion and there are believers that think they’re so right that they are in denial. All he’s (West) doing is fear mongering”

  12. Did anyone catch this? At around the 2:30 mark, Gov. Green says they have been meeting with FEMA for 4 months to determine how much money they can get to rebuild. The thing is, the fires happened last month. https://beforeitsnews.com/war-and-conflict/2023/09/hawaiian-gov-green-to-build-1-billion-15-minute-fema-camps-keep-lahaina-victims-properties-locked-leveled-tim-truth-2479497.html

    The residents are not expected to be able to enter their homes for a year and a half. If any of this seems remotely reasonable, please let me know how. (But don’t copy and past reddit and tell me they’re first-hand eye witnesses to anything.)

    If you want to tell me how much you love Hawaii, you need to know so do I. And if living on the islands makes you an expert, you should probably know I was there so often for business, an apartment was rented for me by my company in Oahu.

    I spent considerable time on Maui, too, as I later had 2 timeshares in Kaanapali, minutes from Lahaina. I have vacationed on McKenna Beach and Hilo and almost divorced my husband on the road to Hana (it’s true). I spent time on the big Island at the Mauna Kae where where I happened to be humming John Denver songs when he plopped down beside me on the beach to see if I would recognize him. I didn’t. I was also there during the 7.4 1975 earthquake where I slid across the floor in a wooden chair because the buildings are built on rollers.

    In Lahaina, I have specific memories of sitting under that bayan tree because it made me feel so safe. Trees are like that for me. If they can stand for hundreds of years, I sort of think I’ll be safe wherever they are.

    I have had the opportunity to get to know and love the Hawaiian people who were always very kind to me. I got used to their culture of starting meetings 45 minutes late and holding up installs to bless buildings. A healthy improvement over the way I normally do business.

    To say I have fond memories of Hawaii in general, and Maui specifically, would be an understatement so there is no point getting so defensive about my wanting to set the record straight. Something happened to those people that stinks to high heaven and if you don’t want to hear it, don’t read it.

    • “Usually it’s after a year and we’ve gone through four months of meetings.” That’s what Gov. Green said. To my ear it seems obvious, especially from the intonation of his voice, that he is speaking in the future tense. In other words, in this case, FEMA will provide a huge grant for housing for the survivors of the Lahaina fire, but only after four months of meetings between the Hawai’i authorities and FEMA, which start now. So, if the timelines of recovery from previous disasters are any indication of the future schedule for rebuilding Lahaina, then decisions for Lahaina’s housing will be made in January 2024 after four months of meetings, and the construction of more-than-temporary housing will commence next September.

      Gail, I don’t doubt the veracity of your life experience on Maui. You probably know that island better than I do. Please don’t take any implications of this discussion personally, but rather let’s work together to search out the truth of the matter, whether or not that proves either of us to have been right or wrong. All that matters now is that those responsible for dropping the ball on August 8 be held accountable, and that the refugees of the fire be able to get back on their feet as soon as they can.

      • “We’ve gone through 4 months of meetings.” “Have gone” is past tense. There is no “and” except on the scrolling text below which may be what you saw, but that’s a machine not what he said. The use of a past participle means it has already taken place. Maybe someone told him the ground they’ve covered to date (in their discussions) is the equivalent of 4 months of meetings. Who knows? But taken at face value they have had 4 months of meetings when the fire happened only a month ago.

        No one is disputing the future timeline or what they have planned. They are pretty much forcing people with no resources to go into tent cities.

        There has never been a disaster like this in Lahaina, so I’m not sure how one could say, “if the timelines of recovery from previous disasters are any indication of the future schedule. . .” but I guess it can be good to be optimistic.

        I wasn’t talking about my life so much as responding to a statement that suggested that two talking heads from reddit would somehow know better than I what was going on because they were “locals.” I don’t recall if I said this at the time, but they could be anybody. Maybe people who never stepped foot on Hawaii. If you copy and paste some of their statements, you’ll see they were pulled word for word from somewhere else. They could be AIs for all we know.

        Look, I don’t want it to be an attack, but that’s what I think it was. Green said the ground was “toxic.” Why would that be the case? We had a house in our neighborhood burn down. They bulldozed it and rebuilt it.

        I’m going to request you let this go, Lawrence. I think it’s pretty clear you think it was a regular fire. Can we leave it at that?

        • The and should have been in square brackets as it is an interpolation
          to make sense of what is all one sentence.
          But we don’t really need it if it is punctuated clearly,
          remembering that rendering the patterns of speech
          into written prose is notoriously difficult.

          “The way it works with FEMA is:
          for those who don’t have any insurance,
          for those who have costs that are unmet,
          they will provide a huge grant – a huge grant;
          usually it’s after a year,
          we’ve gone through 4 months of meetings,
          and that will determine how much money we get,
          and how much we can build…”

          The governing verb of the whole passage is will provide,
          which puts everything that follows into the future.

          • I have no disagreement with the fact that they were planning for a future event. That was my whole point. They had meetings about this. As in before it happened.

            The Biden appointed expert, FEMA Region IX Regional Administrator Robert Fenton, was actually on Oahu the day the fire started to hear “unmet needs and requests for assistance to improve readiness for future disasters.” There is a picture of him there. The Pacific Partnership Meeting 2023 took place in Honolulu, Hawaii, from August 8- 10, when the fires started. Two months prior to that, they had a meeting which focused on Logistics and Supply Chain Management to follow up on the deployment of a team to American Samoa May 2023 to conduct a Critical Commodity Lifelines Baseline Assessment. https://www.samoanews.com/local-news/enhancing-disaster-resilience-american-samoa-participates-pacific-partnership-meeting

            So there were previous meetings (four months of them, presumably). Because they were several months into the planning, it shaved time off the year it usually takes. This is how I interpreted what Gov. Green said.

            In other words, they had been meeting about just such an event up to and including when it happened. Interesting to say the least. An incredible coincidence. How often do you get to plan for a once in a lifetime disaster netting a 1B grant?

            The average award per household is just $5,000. Most of the grant goes to other things. https://esg.wharton.upenn.edu/climate-center/federal-disaster-rebuilding-spending-a-look-at-the-numbers/

            • So I debated whether or not to add this. This too is an interesting coincidence. Green talked about how FEMA was going to build kauhales for temporary housing. The planning for these (across the state) was also well under way before the fires. Not saying I disagree with the objective, but Hawaii is not my state so it’s not my call. Ultimately, it doesn’t matter what anyone thinks. He says, “I’m not going to let people reject projects.” After the fires, he said he’s working to get 500, 1000, 1500 of them.

              I hate reporting stories like this because real people are suffering. I sincerely hope Green is on the up and up and will help them.

              https://www.civilbeat.org/2023/04/hawaii-governor-plans-to-develop-more-tiny-home-villages-statewide/

    • Gail: “Gov. Green says they have been meeting with FEMA for
      4 months to determine how much money they can get to rebuild.”

      Err… No. What he says is:
      “The way it works with FEMA is:
      for those who don’t have any insurance,
      for those who have costs that are unmet,
      they will provide a huge grant – a huge grant;
      usually it’s after a year
      and we’ve gone through 4 months of meetings
      and that will determine how much money we get
      and how much we can build…”

      He is describing how long it takes [it will usually take]
      to run through the process and get the money.
      There is nothing sinister in that statement.

      • There is no “and” there. – Sorry. It’s really irrelevant, though. They said they have gone through 4 months of meetings that will determine how much money they will get and how much they can build. Yes? That would mean they started these meetings 4 months ago in May to talk about money they would get for an August fire.