Introduction
In Part II, we took a detour into analyzing the military situation in the Ukraine. The reason we did so is because the West has taken an assessment of China’s military situation (which is their real concern) and decided that Russia must be dealt with first.
While it has long been a neoconservative dream of longstanding to fracture Russia into at last five regions, this is not their primary goal. Regime change in the Kremlin is. This is because Vladimir Putin has not acceded to the designated role of Western lackey.
And of course the ultimate breakup of the Russian Federation cannot be accomplished without Russian forces being defeated in an extended war. Unless these two conditions are met, war with China will be extremely difficult for the U.S. to prosecute.
As for the Special Military Operation itself, we examined the grand strategy which the Russians are using. We also commented on the relative strengths and weaknesses of NATO and the Russian Federation in the present conflict. In doing so, it may give us a glimpse into the near future as far as China is concerned and perhaps a glimmer of hope that war can be avoided.
The Madness of the West
Earlier, reference was made to Antigone, Sophocles’ epic tragedy. In this play, we are told that the gods drove the main characters mad before they were destroyed. Some think this was due to the capricious nature of the Greek gods, hurling their thunderbolts at hapless mortals for no good reason. We could on the other hand, posit another intention to the gods’ caprice: namely, so that the audience could come to grips with the fact that their doom was set in motion because of sins committed long ago by their ancestors.
As we look around at our present culture in the West, I’m afraid that we are caught in the grips of a similar insanity. The Anglosphere for some reason or another, has a deep abiding animus towards Russia; in fact, one can discern a gnostic antipathy towards Orthodoxy itself.
Unless things change –and quick–the future looks grim.
The 25% Solution: Or How to Avoid the Thucydides Trap by Marrying a Dollar Princess
The so-called Thucydides Trap as described by Allison has impressive historic precedents. Still, it is not inevitable. Great Britain and the United States for instance, were caught in a similar trap in the middle of the nineteenth century, when it was becoming obvious that America would soon overtake the United Kingdom as the greatest economy on earth.
Britain for its part, did not take this lying down. The British Establishment thought that they could derail America’s ambitions by financing the Confederacy and splitting our nation in two. (The South for its part was the world’s fourth largest economy at the time.) For a variety of reasons, Great Britain could not bring itself to recognize the Confederacy; had they done so, history would have turned out differently.
Two of those reasons were Queen Victoria, who along with her husband Prince Albert, who were both admirers of President Lincoln. The other reason was Tsar Alexander II of Russia (also an admirer of Lincoln), who stationed three Russian ships at San Francisco and three at Philadelphia. These ships served as a “trip-wire”, intended to prevent France and Britain from coming to the Confederacy’s aid.
Following the American Civil War, any further attempts to derail America’s growing hegemony were laid aside. Cooler heads prevailed in England and they wisely stopped antagonizing America, trying instead to harness our strengths for England’s benefit. One way they did so was to lure American heiresses to England and marry them off to English nobility. These “dollar princesses” cemented ties between the elites of both countries. (The mothers of Winston Churchill and Harold MacMillan, two prime ministers, were the daughters of American business magnates.)
Unfortunately, the political finesse that the British possessed at that time is sorely lacking today. It should also be pointed out that there were ethnic, religious, and cultural affinities that existed between America and England at that time, none of which obtain between China and America.
Chinese Strengths and Weaknesses
China, as we have noted, is well on its way to becoming the world’s largest economy.1 This trajectory however is just that –a projection. Much can happen along the way.
Among its weaknesses is its disparities in the male-to-female sex ratio. Beginning over thirty years ago, the Chinese government demanded a one-child policy. This resulted in the abortion and/or abandonment of female infants on a mass scale. It has also resulted in a huge surplus of single males, which some estimate at over 70 million.
This is clearly a recipe for instability; as a rule, men with no serious marital prospects act in unstable ways. Worse, a large percentage of them are unemployed, if not unemployable.
As for employment itself, many of the factories that churn out cheap goods for sale overseas are veritable sweatshops. It is said that working conditions are so horrible that nets have to be placed in them in order to catch workers as they try to jump to their deaths. A credible case can be made that much of the work in these factories is only a step above slavery. China faces a real estate bubble as well, one that could blow up along the lines of the real estate crisis that we faced in 2008.
As for ethnic and religious minorities, China has shown no hesitation when it comes to restricting their freedoms. Tibet is the most famous example of ethno-religious repression; the plight of the Uigher Muslims, many of whom are herded into concentration camps, is another. As for all Chinese, the level of restrictions which they were placed under during the COVID pandemic were repressive.
That said, we would be foolish to view China as an oppressive dictatorship on the verge of collapse. One reason would be because most Chinese over the age of 40 remember a time of extreme poverty –as opposed to the relative prosperity which they now experience. For those over 50, many remember the Cultural Revolution and the mass starvation that accompanied it. Neither situation obtains today, nor is it on the horizon.
Although China is not a democracy, its government is not unresponsive to the people’s needs. Whenever scandals break out in the private sector, punishment is swift and often severe. For instance, executives who were part of a milk-tampering scheme a few years ago, were arrested, tied, and executed within short order after the public outcry became impossible to ignore.
Perhaps China’s greatest strength is its racial homogeneity. The Han Chinese ethnicity constitute 90 percent of China’s total population. This is an incredibly stabilizing factor, one which fits in very well with its Confucian ethic of societal harmony. Moreover, the type of violent, random crime that afflicts major American cities is unknown in China.
The Chinese have long memories. They are reminded in school every day about the humiliations visited upon them during the nineteenth century, when China lay prostrate before the Western powers. Opium addiction, starvation, despondency and explosive violence (as experienced during the Boxer Rebellion) were the order of the day.
Before Mao Zedong, China’s military was inept and weak. That is no longer the case. Today, it’s a behemoth. It’s navy is the largest in the world. Although it has not been tested in battle, it would be foolhardy to presume that we could make short work of the Chinese military, especially over the issue of Taiwan.
Perhaps China’s greatest strength today is its growing reputation as a force for international goodwill. The recent peace treaty between Iran and Saudi Arabia for example, caught the entire world by pleasant surprise (not so much so our State Department). Because of this remarkable achievement, peace seems to be breaking out in the Middle East. Syria has rejoined the Arab League, the civil war in the Yemen is drawing to a close and even the Azeris and Armenians are coming to terms.
This is simply astounding. The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), which is financed by Chinese banks, offers much more attractive loans to African countries than does the International Monetary Fund, which they are using to build high-speed railways, highways and other forms of infrastructure. The BRI is an example of “soft power” and is paying dividends in goodwill for China throughout the world, so much so, that more countries are seeking entry into the BRICS trading system. What’s worrisome for America is that in doing so, these countries are ditching the dollar and trading in the yuan. (Iraq is the latest country to ditch the dollar.)
BRICS is an acronym of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa. Because of the goodwill generated by China (and the impressive military strength of Russia to enforce it), more countries are seeking entry into this system, including Turkey, Iran, Venezuela, Argentina and Pakistan (among others). Even Israel is starting to contemplate joining. Because of this rush of nations to join the original five, it is now termed BRICS+.
America’s Strengths and Weaknesses
In the present iteration, it is clear that America is in a state of decline. Whether it is terminal or not is unknowable. Great swaths of the population live in cities that are hobbled by district attorneys that are bolshevist in their application of justice. That is to say, none at all.
As we see can see by a recitation of names such as Daniel Penny, Kyle Rittenhouse, Daniel Perry and a host of others, the very right of self-defense is being abrogated. While devotees of the Second Amendment have largely won the argument of keeping and bearing firearms, those committed to depriving us of our rights are busy finding work-arounds. And it looks like they are succeeding.
As for government schools, they are openly admitting that their purpose is not education but indoctrination into what can only be called cultural Marxism. This of course is horrible to say the least but even schools in actual Marxist countries of the past were able to turn out graduates who were competent. (The men who pioneered the Soviet space program for example, came from such institutions.)
Ours on the other hand are only able to turn out graduates who have only minimal reading and computational skills. This is a recipe for disaster. This miasma extends to post-secondary education as well: applicants to medical schools are no longer required to take the Medical College Admissions Test (MCAT). Are we going to outsource the manufacture of our airplanes? Are we going to import doctors from the Third World?
And as mentioned earlier, our armed forces are unable to meet their most basic recruiting guidelines. No doubt part of the massive bloat of our ever-increasing military budgets is devoted to enforcing anti-American and anti-Christian doctrines that are hateful to the majority of our population.
Even our current president is delusional, believing that the greatest problem that faces America today is the specter of “white supremacy”, all the while ignoring the fact that thousands of illegal aliens are poring over our southern border daily. Meanwhile our physical infrastructure continues to collapse on an intermittent basis.
These are all horrible problems, some cultural, some structural. Left to themselves, they could be rectified at least on a piecemeal basis. Taken altogether, they presage a terminal decline, not unlike what befell Rome after Adrianople in A.D. 378 or Byzantium after the Fourth Crusade (A.D. 1204). Neither empire recovered from these catastrophes. It is too soon to say whether our debacles in Vietnam, Iraq and Afghanistan will be viewed in a similar light but taken together, it is hard to see a military resurgence on the horizon.
Perhaps the greatest calamity we face is our increasing national debt. In 2003, our national debt stood at $3.2 trillion; today it is $31 trillion, an increase of $30 trillion (or 1,000 percent), a staggering sum with no end in sight. Our debt-to-GPD ratio is 129 percent, a figure which puts us on a par with economic basket cases like Greece and Venezuela.2
Debt-to-GDP ratios
Venezuela Greece US Germany China Russia
241% 176% 129% 77% 60% 13%
Soon, our entire budget will be used to service the interest on the debt, a sobering prospect to say the least. What will be cut? Social Security and Medicare, the military, or food stamps?
Not a pretty picture. Perhaps the most glaring difference between China and the United States is in the realm of economics. Whereas America used to be the preeminent manufacturing country, that honor has now passed to China. To be sure, our economy is larger, of this there is no doubt. Unfortunately, it is based on “finance capitalism” rather than industrialism.
The acronym which best describes wealth generation in America presently is FIRE (Finance, Insurance and Real Estate). It does generate wealth but it is a sophisticated type of wealth-creation that benefits only the top quintile of our nation, a cognitive elite (in Charles Murray’s words) that can take advantage of this intricate system. The more cynical among us would say an elite which can “game” the system to their advantage.
As for the weaponization of our legal system, we have now entered into Third-World territory; not only on a local level (as described above) but on a political level. The very idea of going after a former president for political reasons is uncharted territory for the American Republic, a veritable refutation of our civic discourse. And yet, here we are.
To be perfectly honest, it’s hard to catalogue what our strengths are in the face of these sobering facts. I, for one, find it hard to envision a scenario in which we could prevail in a war with China facing such headwinds.
The Achilles’ Heel of Neoconservatism: A Way Out?
This does not mean that war with China is inevitable. Two things stand out that give us a glimmer of hope.
First, in 2024, Taiwan will hold a presidential election and it seems likely that the Kuomintang Party (KMT) will prevail. It is most ironic that this party, which was founded by Chiang Kai-Shek, the staunch anti-communist warlord who was driven from the Chinese mainland, is now the party that is more conciliatory to the Chinese Communist Party and eager for unification. In other words, the Taiwan issue may solve itself. (Then again, the ability of our State Department to finagle its way into foreign elections and overturn them is legendary.)
Second, NATO is being exhausted militarily in the Ukraine. According to an analysis by Ron Unz,3 the neoconservatives have bitten off more than they can chew, making military action against a near-peer enemy next to impossible anytime in the near future.
Other unforeseen events could intercede in the interim which could defuse military tensions. China could face an economic collapse, which would make it difficult for them to invade Taiwan and/or repel the United States Navy. On the other hand, we too could be facing an economic collapse, especially if we are indeed heading into a recession. Our allies in the EU are already in a recession. (Our actual inflation rate is 16 percent if we used the same econometric model that were used during the Carter years, when we experienced a hyperinflation of 12 percent.)
If NATO continues to receive a black eye from the Russians, then it is possible that the present generation of militarists could face expulsion. Perhaps a bona fide antiwar movement could arise. As for the Democrats, even if they retain the presidency and take back the House of Representatives, they have proven incapable of uniting the American nation. We should not forget that after two years of total control of the Executive and Legislative branches, both Bill Clinton and Barack Obama lost control of the Congress.
Anything is possible.
Still, based on what we see at present, we can say with some certainty that the future is sobering. In trying to take out President Trump (and Robert F Kennedy, Jr), the Deep State has fortified the bipartisan pro-war consensus. The picture is indeed grim, even if we avoid war with China. The ferocious appetite of our Military Industrial Complex could extend to other countries (such as Iran) in order to sate itself.
In any event, there is always hope. The future after all, is an unknown country. We won’t know what it looks like until we get there.
- https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3202752/china-gdp-surpass-us-around-2035-years-later-previously-expected-goldman-sachs-predicts
- https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/government-debt-to-gdp#:~:text=Government%20Debt%20to%20GDP%20in,percent%20of%20GDP%20in%201981.
- https://www.unz.com/runz/did-the-neocons-save-the-world-from-the-thucydides-trap/
Perhaps the best outcome is for the US to be defeated first by Russia, then, if they tempt fate again, by China. This may be inevitable given the ferocity of the declining liberal ideology. They cannot face a world governed by any other worldview unless they are humbled dramatically.
Neither the Russians nor the Chinese have to do anything. We are defeating ourselves.
But I see your point.
Agree. We are trapped in a contract since 1913. We must adhere to the contract or else.
That is true, George. Russia has not fired a shot at the US or the EU and yet has impelled them toward recession/depression by simply shutting off energy, which is what the US/EU in their insanity wanted. Moreover, Russia has seriously weakened NATO’s arsenal by destroying considerable parts of it in the Ukraine. Again, not a shot fired against NATO (unless they were “advisers” in Ukraine itself).
The US/NATO may be too depleted to start up with China or, if the Kuomintang win in next year’s elections, the Taiwanese may agree to reunification in spite of the US.
It is probably wise to view all the saber rattling as simply fear mongering in order to mobilize the politicians and people behind the MIC. I’m not sure they actually intend to put themselves on the chopping block in jeopardy of a loss to either Russia or China in a direct conflict. The game seems to be to get rid of all the old weapons in the Ukraine and get everybody on the list for new weapons from the American MIC. The other part is to build up the military in preparation for a war with China to unfold sometime in the next 5 years or so. That provides a sense of immediacy which works to line up the pols and people to support the build up, again lining the pockets of the MIC.
War is big business. But the best way to wage it is either by proxy or, if it is direct conflict with a superpower, for it to be always just around the corner but never right now.
The Chinese bluff, as does Washington. Russians seldom do.
We in America are ruled by cowards. If they had the balls to take on Russia directly, they would already have done so. I suspect the same is true with China. They just want to keep the money laundering operation going. You can’t believe anything at all that they say. It is always calculated to cause some effect that furthers their interests rather than simply telling the truth.
If any of them were even capable of telling the truth, the West would not be in this predicament.
With record low recruiting and generals who are biological men who think they’re women, I don’t think China is too worried. But that’s just MHO
Talk about a Black Swan: China just announced that the Palestinian Authority be recognized as a full member of the United Nations.
Last week, Mexico officially recognized Palestine, exchanging ambassadors.
Hmmm…..
“…be recognized” ?
“… [should] be recognized” ?
or
“…[will] be recognized” ?
Completely OT, but Alexander Belya has prevailed in the Supreme Court, and can now sue ROCOR:
http://www.events.orthodoxengland.org.uk/archimandrite-alexander-belya-wins-case-against-rocor-synod/
It’s looking like Archimandrite Alexander Belya has a pretty solid case against ROCOR. At this point, I don’t think ROCOR has the wherewithal to continue fighting this either. Probably the best option would be to fold. I would predict that within a couple years or less, ROCOR will cease to exist.
It’s been a while since I’ve left the life of drug use behind but man would I love to have some of whateve you’re smoking.
My ROCOR parish has baptized over 40 people in the last year and a half and we have new people constantly, including from other Orthodox parishes. Extrapolate this through not just the U.S but the rest of the world where ROCOR operates.
The odds are EXPONENTIALLY higher that GOARCH will cease to exist. They’re hemorrhaging members at a rate that if it were a company it would be bankrupt.
That’s awesome! At the ROCOR parish I serve at, we have baptized many new members as well over the past year.
Joseph, people have been predicting that going on 100 years now.
George, this Belya case underlines how ROCOR’s bishops are not only dependent on Moscow’s approval, but are in fact subservient to Moscow’s politics, as evident by ROCOR’s required withdrawal from the Assembly of Bishops.
If this case continues, then ROCOR’s recent affiliation of the past 16 years with Moscow is going to be put under a microscope. I suppose one might even say that ROCOR has entered a Thucydides Trap by aligning itself with BRICS.
I think ROCOR will be just fine, it’s survived a lot worse….
Kinda like me😇
Only way ROCOR would “cease to exist” is if it combines with other Russian/Slavic tradition Orthodox jurisdictions to help heal the jurisdictional morass that we suffer from in most of the non-traditionally-Orthodox lands…..
Example: In America, ROCOR and the non-modernist section of the OCA (and hopefully the non-modernist section of ACROD) combine to form a single jurisdictional entity. It could be called whatever the Holy Spirit wills, but ROCOR would certainly still exist, simply in a new jurisdictional form.
It’s high time, anyway, (in my opinion) that this multiplicity of Russian/Slavic heritage, traditional/serious Orthodox Christian groups combine.
But ROCOR is going strong…. Jordanville is flourishing…. young American men (and women) are flocking to Christ and to his Church. Thank God that His image remains alive in young (and older) people… we find the modernism and homosexualism/trans-garbage and secularism that the “secular western world” tries to push down our throats to be complete revolting.
The modernist sections of the GOA and OCA and whomever else who want so much to be “liked and admired by the world” can go that way should they choose to do so…. in high time they’ll find themselves like the Anglicans/ECUSA and modernist Roman Catholics…. having a decent amount of cash but empty church buildings, hardly any faithful, and vapid/empty spirituality.
It ain’t that hard…. serious Christian people just want to be with Christ sacramentally through His Church.
My hope (maybe naïve hope) is that because Belya is under GOARCH the court will call Elpi as a character witness for Belya. Given how strongly/negatively the Assembly of Bishops reacted to Elpi trying to make Belya a bishop (including letters to their respective patriarchs) I would love to think that should Elpi give him a positive character witness against ROCOR, which I’m 100% sure he would, then that would spur the other jurisdiction’s to finally leave the AoB.
It’s a massive waste of time to have an Assembly without ROCOR, given how ROCOR & the Antiochians are the fastest growing jurisdictions from converts, they should for their own Assembly without the Greeks.
Fr. Andrew Phillips’ post on his OrthodoxEngland website, http://www.events.orthodoxengland.org.uk/, refers to “the dark period of the late Metropolitan Hilarion’s illness, when all kinds of strange documents were signed with his electronic signature.” Perhaps a ROCOR secretary made a mistake by sending out documents with Metropolitan Hilarion’s electronic signature, but then the Metropolitan later wanted to retract it? I don’t know. It is a curious thing, though, that Metropolitan Hilarion’s personal secretary of ten years, Igumen Tikhon Gayfudinov, just joined the Slavic Vicariate without a canonical release two months ago:
https://orthochristian.com/153033.html
Same thing happened to P. Heers
My prediction is that even if the lawsuit does proceed (it can always be withdrawn and/or settled out of court), there is no guarantee that the court will rule in Belya’s defense.
And even if it does, there is no guarantee that it will result in his consecration to the episcopate, mainly because the well will have been poisoned in the interim.
If however, he is installed, then said elevation could be the final straw that breaks the camel’s (ACOB’s) back. I seriously don’t think that any jurisdiction –GOA included–will be happy with the fact that the secular courts could now rectify ecclesiastical issues, no matter how justified.
Does the EP/GOA really want to open this door?
Great points George.
I quite literally think they don’t care. The EP sees himself as above reproach. If he invaded Ukraine he’ll do the same anywhere.
ROCOR probably could have dropped Belya from episcopal consideration without providing any reason. That would be protected and consistent with the ministerial exemption that is provided by the law. Instead, they accused him of forgery.
Now it’s sounding like ROCOR was having an internal problem where documents were being signed and sent with Metropolitan Hilarion’s electronic signature, and then ROCOR later saying he never approved them. That appears to have happened to Fr. Peter Heers also. So if that’s the case, then Belya was not responsible for the forgery.
What I believe would additionally come under scrutiny if this case proceeds, is the involvement of the Moscow Patriarchate. ROCOR says that Belya forged the document of his episcopal candidacy that was sent to Patriarch Kirill for approval. So that opens up a whole different can of worms. Why should an American church be presided over by the Patriarch of Moscow? I don’t think ROCOR wants that kind of scrutiny, especially with the current cold war with Russia.
“Why should an American church be presided over by the Patriarch of…?”
Do tell, Mr. Lipper, what Patriarch presides over your church? Is there something inherently wrong with that?
Brian, having a foreign patriarch is not necessarily problematic until the government suddenly decides that it is. We are seeing that now in Ukraine, and perhaps we will see it in the U.S. This was not something that ROCOR has dealt with before, because they previously were separated from the MP.
Very true. From 988AD to 2018, the Church in Ukraine did well under the Russian Church until the Patriarch of Constantinople moved in and created a national church under the government who is hostile toward the canonical Church and are trying to kick them out of the country.
Well, in all fairness, it’s more like 300 years since C’pol ceded Kiev to Moscow. But there’s a larger point to be made. The Eastern Slavs are one people or ethnos, ie, one tribe. It is unnatural for them to be spiritually divided. There have been Catholic poachers, of course, in the west of the country, but for the Church itself to be divided there is a travesty. All agreed until 2018 that Kiev was under Moscow, even the CP. But then the US State Department intervened and a civil leader installed by a coup requested autocephaly from C’pol, which was granted against canon law, thus creating the present schism.
But given the actual growing divergence in the substance of the faith between the Greek synods and the rest of the Church, it’s actually convenient in a sense. Moscow was compelled to excommunicate all the Greeks following the Fanar’s lead on the OCU. This will likely be the fissure between Orthodoxy and Uniatism when the CP’s longer term plan comes to fruition.
So everyone is on notice about what the future may hold. As for the OCU, it will likely not survive the war in the Ukraine, at least not in Russian occupied territory.
Bear in mind, a number of attempts at autocephaly have been undone by far less.
RE: “It is unnatural for them to be spiritually divided.”
This is a brilliant insight! – The State Department in all it’s wisdom (not) could never understand this. Being Greek, in and of itself, also creates a form of blindness when it comes to everyone who is not Greek. They think there is one right way and it is their way. There is Greek, and there is everything “not Greek,” and when you’re Greek you’re at the top of the heap. This is why I think Bartholomew has such a difficult time with other bishops in terms of coming together and making joint decisions. Even his Great and Holy Council in Crete was an abject failure because the “agenda” was to become the “minutes.” In other words, he had already made decisions that 5 of the Churches, one of which is the largest, did not support (not to mention the old wounds of Antioch that were the result of a botched mediation where he resolved nothing and took all the spoils for himself).
He clearly thinks he’s more significant and important than anyone else. – Even when he went into Ukraine and told the UOC priests they could commemorate him, I think he thought they would jump at the chance because, well, he was HIM! Why wouldn’t they all want to be under the Ecumenical Patriarchate?!
It’s like going over to someone’s house to spend the night as a kid. You make plans for Friday night and look forward to it during the week. You sit down to dinner with their family, stay up late on their couch, watch TV (they probably play video games now), call your friends, and then drop off to sleep in a freshly made bed, whispering secrets back and forth about what’s going on with your friends at school. – But the next day, you’re tired and you want to go home. You love spending a night or two with your friends, but day in and day out, you want to be home in your own bed.
The Ukrainians have got to be longing for “their own bed” at this point. Whatever history is going to be for them from this point forward, the Ecumenical Patriarchate is forever going to be tainted by the monstrosity Bartholomew created that allowed the OCU to brutally destroy everything that represented home to them. His involvement beginning in 2018, turned their world upside down. He took away their family. The “God family” they had known for centuries. – The Ukrainians have been through a lot and survived a lot because they had something they could turn to that no one (until now) could take away from them which is, of course, the Church. Bartholomew replaced it (unsuccessfully) with an arrogant, schismatic, faux church with a lot of hate in their heart for the Russians which was the one things he probably liked best about them. That they were aligned with the government to annihilate the canonical Church must have been the cherry on the top. – He cheapened himself in the process. The Church has turned away from him and his offspring, Epiphany and Elpidophoros. That this mess in Ukraine was all perfectly timed with the West’s involvement was no accident, obviously. The State Department used Bartholomew. How much better it would have been for Ukraine to agree to close off their country to NATO, get rid of the biolabs, and back off from persecuting the Russian speaking Ukrainians. – For us, too, because the reality is, we’ve come to another “Cuban Missile Crisis” moment. Most people don’t’ realize it yet, but we’re there. We have more access to information than we ever dreamed of having back in the 60s, but with so much information, there are opportunities to create separate worlds and realities that rarely touch. (The Kardashians and their followers probably have no clue anything could interrupt whatever they’re planning to do tonight.) But unlike the Cuban Missile Crisis days, we don’t have two sane men willing to compromise. One side is mentally ill and this is no joke. It is my fervent hope, the sane people have rigged the system and we’ll avoid this catastrophe, but we won’t know until we know.
Excuse me, please, Gail, slight correction. The Kievan church really was under Constantinople up until the late 17th century. That’s because the area now known as Ukraine was part of the Polish-Lithuanian kingdom. Had Poland treated her Orthodox subjects with more charity, Ukraine might never have joined Russia. But that is water over the bridge.
Incidentally, what was known as the Grand Duchy of Lithuania is what is now Belarus. So we hear of Dostoyevsky being from Lithuanian nobility, that doesn’t mean his ancestors came from the modern country of Lithuania. Lithuania is a Baltic country, where the majority of the people speak the non-Slavic Lithuanian language. They do, however, share a lot of common history with Poland and Belarus. Not that that in itself has anything to do with the current church crisis.
🙂
I am aware of that, yes, but one has to wonder how long that holds, or if it’s significant at all if the Ecumenical Patriarchate acknowledges someone else as the head of a region, as was the case with Bartholomew.
Previously, Bartholomew did not claim Kiev for Constantinople. Perhaps for his entire tenue as head of the Patriarchate up until 2018. I’d have to look it up to be sure.
From 2014, he recognized Met. Onufriy as the primate and Metropolitan of Kiev and All Ukraine under the Russian Church.
Then in 2018, he cobbled together a church. There were 3 (I believe); all separate, all schismatic. He installed an un-ordianed cleric (Epiphany) over the newly formed OCU, and with a wave of his hand, gave Epiphany the same title as Onufriy, i.e. The Metropolitan of Kiev and All Ukraine” as if Met. Onufriy didn’t exist!
Bartholomew then supported Zelensky in his efforts to eradicate the canonical Church from Ukraine, by inviting them to commemorate him instead of Patriarch Kirill. When the government sponsored OCU was beating up priests, confiscating their property, bulldozing their parishes, hauling people out of their parishes, and trashing their antimins, Bartholomew never said a word in their defense.
EVERY BISHOP AROUND THE WORLD STRONGLY OBJECTED but Bartholomew and his lackeys. Silence. I will NEVER forget that for as long as I live. IMO, they did the unforgivable: They betrayed the canonical Church.
You cannot undo previous understandings or relationships accepted by the entire Church. It’s like saying to your son, yes, the family car is yours! Merry Christmas! And then wanting the money when the son goes to sell the car several years later claiming it’s yours.
Understandings, especially in the Church, are vital to it’s functioning.
I’m reflecting further on the thought of the Rus’ (Русь) being one ethnos. There is a distinction in Russian and a number of other languages between the adjectives russkiy (“of Rus’ “) and rossiyskiy (“of the Russian Federation”), with a corresponding distinction in nouns too. So, what we call in English the “Russian Orthodox Church” is actually the Church of Rus’ (russkaya), not the Church of the state of Russia.
By definition, Rus’ is the national (not political) reality that is the common heritage of not only modern Russia, but also Ukraine (Kievan Rus’), Belarus (“White Rus’ “), and the Rusyns/Ruthenians (“people of Rus’ “).
Incidentally, Rus’ from its earliest days was a covenantal and, soon afterward, a sacramental unity—not an ethnicity in the modern sense that is limited to bloodlines. The Rus’ were a mix of Slavs and Scandinavians that soon incorporated people of Turkic and Mongol origins, among others. The very name Rus’ originally referred to people from present-day Sweden (i.e. Rurik and his companions) and is related to the Finnish name for the country of Sweden, Ruotsi. So to be a member of Rus’ was not to be part of a certain race, but to be joined to a unifying heritage of faith, culture, and history that always embraced multiple tribes and languages, and even nation-states.
The event that cemented the unity of Rus’ was the Baptism of Grand Prince Volodimier (the Old East Slavic spelling of “Vladimir”/”Volodymyr”)—the singular event which all four streams of “East Slavs” look back to as the founding moment of their nation(s).
George is going to love your reply! You are of like mind.
And that’s another thing, btw: Never interfere in interfamily warfare. Both sides will end up hating you.
The OCU is already showing contempt for the restrictions placed on them by the Fanar and its meddling. The Ukrainians, like the Chechens before them, will eventually turn on their Western overlords due to the hell that it has inflicted on them.
@Jeff Moss
Similarly, ‘Europe’ and the ‘European Union’
are not two names for the same body.
The latter is contained in the former
and is not coterminous with it.
The like distinction, of course, also applies to
America and The United States thereof… 🙂
Some inspiration today: Here’s St. John Maximovitch writing about what made Holy Rus’ what it was—and is. (Though the title says “Russia,” this is not merely the Russian Federation, but the greater reality of Rus’ that encompasses the RF and outlasts all Russian governments.)
Thanks, Jeff!
Perhaps Mr. Lipper has provided the answer to Gail’s question:
I must admit that it fits rather well with the pattern of Byzantine intrigue, leverage of secular governmental power, and outright hatred of all things Russian that we’ve been seeing from the Phanariots.
“Does the EP/GOA really want to open this door?”
I have never known the EP to allow principal to get in the way of having secular governments cover their backs. On the contrary, they seem to relish such prospects.
Reading over the new website for the new GOARCH charter, it struck me that they are obviously still trying to consolidate the Archdiocese under total control of the Archbishop and convert the various Metropolises into “districts.”
I realized that for monasteries like St. Anthony’s they will now commemorate Elpi during the liturgy either instead of, or in addition to, their local Metropolitan.
How can the monasteries commemorate Elpi with a straight face while he’s celebrating in heretical churches with pride flags on the front of it?
Petro, that’s a very good question. One, I’m afraid, that they can only answer for themselves.
If you read carefully what has been done, the high court merely said that these cases could proceed from the beginning, with all the motion practice, discovery, etc., which goes along and, probably, settlement negotiations.
It is a “win” in the sense that Belya’s case will be allowed to go forward, but that is all. He’s far, far from victory. As to ROCOR, as part of the Church of Russia, it’s in no danger of anything but expansion.
When I heard that Pres Macron of France wanted to be invited to South Africa to attend the upcoming BRICS+ summit, I thought that maybe he was carrying water for the Rothschild bank which he used to work for:
“This is a classic financial business about moving capitals, much of it being cash. As any hedge funds, Rothschild’s funds have analysts–we will omit now their quality issues–who are tasked with assessment of threats and probabilistic analysis designed to preserve and grow the capital. Macron’s asking for invitation to BRICS IS NOT an act of espionage or being a Trojan Horse, not at all, it is about trying to negotiate at the fringes of BRICS summit the fate of Rothschild’s capitals. The trajectory of the combined West is now well pronounced and the growth of volatility and radical decline are already in progress. This is a bad-bad situation for capital. Money loves stability and calm.”
It’s going to be very interesting to see the final outcomes of the recent St. Petersburg Economic Forum. From what little I’ve seen it looks like Putin didn’t mince any words.
The upcoming BRICS forum in August should be equally as interesting. With the recent debacle of the Poles trying to make it difficult for the South Africans to get to Russia, I can’t imagine they did the West any favors, other than continue to push countries further to the “East”
It really astounds me that the West STILL has not learned it’s lesson and continues to go headlong into bullying countries to the point at they de-dollarization is happing at lightspeed and tons of countries are trying to join BRICS.
Looks like the Russians are smoking out the Ukie tunnels. Children in them. Fancy that (courtesy of Sonar21, Larry Johnson’s blog).
“Derek says
15 June 2023 at 22:34
I am hearing reports of Russian soldiers finding bunkers with children specifically for organ harvesting, would not surprise me in the least considering demons like Clinton, Obama, Soros and Pelosi, etc., the amount of children that go missing in the world is staggering. I wonder if the contents on Weiner’s lap top will ever be revealed, Satan’s minions are busy.”
No wonder the DS is fighting mightily to the last Ukrainian: they can’t afford to be exposed for the satanic pedos that they are.
Folks, this is bigger than the Ukie Oligarchs wanting to get back in and launder money. That’s just normal corruption. What will be exposed is WAY more evil than that.
Thinking aloud here: is there a EP connection here?
“…reports of Russian soldiers finding bunkers
with children specifically for organ harvesting”.
It would be better if Derek provided sources.
Otherwise it’s just rumours – however believable.
I believe he got it from Telegram sources.
But you’re right. FWIW, the Ukraine is/was a central hotbed of sex and child trafficking (as well as organ harvesting).
Well, the Russian landowners did as they wished with their serfs, emulating Jefferson and Sally Hemmings. So there is a long tradition.
I have seen this same story about organ harvesting wherever there is conflict. Ukraine, Haiti, Syria, Kosovo, etc. I have no illusions about the evil in the world but only about logistics. (I don’t mean that to sound as cold as it does.) George, you’re in the medical field. How is it possible to remove organs under such filthy conditions, keep them viable, and transport them to a waiting donor, one who is a match?
I spoke to a Canadian Peacekeeper who worked in The Balkans and he assured me that the hollowed out bodies of children were literally everywhere. Are they doing something else with these organs besides transplants?
I read about adrenochrome.
Are they torturing these children to harvest that?
It could still be properly described as ‘harvesting;
but nevertheless, your question is a valid one.
This from New Atlas with Mark Sleboda is quite good.
Contrary to some other opinions, I’m thinking the West will try to freeze the conflict at some point. However, it is a bleeding wound for Ukraine, Washington and Europe. The Russians have every incentive to keep it going as long as possible absent a new peace treaty with a new security arrangement for Europe solving their NATO problem – slow, incremental or faster at times, right up to the Polish border if necessary.
Could be years. When you combine this with de-dollarization, sanctions inflation, emerging multi-polarity and the alienation of The Rest, etc., it is clear that the West is weakening and the Sino-Russian Alliance is getting stronger – every day.
I continue to believe that Western attitudes toward the East are currently driven by two main cultural factors alongside the economic ones: First, China remains nominally communist and secular and so it is more palatable to Western liberal sensibilities than Russia. Secondly, Russia defenestrated communism and has re-embraced Orthodox Christianity and its values, which run completely counter to Western liberalism in the LGBT$ era. This is why the American Uniparty treated China with kid gloves for so long and even now attempts reproachment (see Blinkin’s recent comments) while steadfastly reviling and alienating Russia.
It’s the religion. The West sees it as an ideology no less challenging than communism, actually more challenging for a liberal. They simply transfer the hostility aimed at the Soviet Union to Orthodox Russia which they see no less as “the dark other”.
Putin said Communism and Christianity have common roots. It is false to see the east as anything but communist. All religions started in the east. The east puts idealism first, while the west puts practicality first. The east is full of communitarianism and consensus (Omonia as GM put it a while back). Demacopoulos is right that Irene Fortipace, restorer of icons, invented the modern welfare state, and that Justinia himself invented urban weapons control on which gun control is based. To try to align orthodoxy with any kind of western conservatism is just dead dishonest and stupid.
Most sane people realize that Russia threw off communism and has made a sport of building churches. To say it is communist is to display frightful ignorance. Real communists are quite open about the nomenclature.
In fact, China claims to be communist but in fact is more of a fascist arrangement. Communists despise the Church and the institution of private property. One can rob words of any significance by mislabeling.
Yes, exactly.
The Western secular left is used to Christians (particularly Christian men) being complete passive pushovers. They’re used to being able to shame Christian men into submission. To be fair, most Western Christian men for the past few decades have willingly played along with this – they’ve allow themselves to be shamed into submission by the secular Left and are complete passive pushovers.
Which is why in the West there is minimal (if any) Christian resistance to aggressive secular leftist policies. Heck, American Muslims push back more against the militant LGBTQism than American Christians.
Orthodox Christian men are not (or should not be) passive pushovers… the Western secular left does know what to do with Christian men who are not passive pushovers. They therefore resort to demonizing and “other”-izing.
“We could on the other hand, posit another intention to the gods’ caprice: namely, so that the audience could come to grips with the fact that their doom was set in motion because of sins committed long ago by their ancestors. ” In udder wierds, the omphaloscopy of Palamas and the treachery of Cantacusene collapsed Byzantium from within, as westerners like VDH fully understand. The Turkish merceneraries refused to leave Galipoli when Cantacuzene asked them and even Churchil could not dislodge them. And don’t forget the slavocommunist zealots who massacred the Thessalonian aristocracy. Yet, Meyendorfians sanctify the traitors who destroyed Hellenism only to cause Hellenism to be again destroyed by drunken, abusive, pagan slavocommunist mythology.
Interesting point we probably don’t emphasize to the degree we should.
As long as we take this with a grain of salt and don’t lump St. Gregory in with that crowd
Byzantium predicted the end of the world in 1492: they were right; their world ended. We have apocalyptic paradigm shifts every half millenium. Every one who says the world will end is right, their world ends, rest continue. This is really a cool version of Schumpeterian creative destruction. Byzantine and mesoamerican omphaloscopy was more responsible for their collapse than any invaders. That is Victor Davis Hanson’s main point that most Greeks miss out.
Very, very interesting comment.
“Byzantium predicted the end of the world
in 1492: they were right; their world ended”
Not just their world…
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CMiReDGqs3Q
[Video – 04:54]
Trump war college advisor, Maronite Walid Phares, argued Byzantium fell because they argued over how many angels could fit on the head of a pin.
I assume Dr. Phares’s comment is meant figuratively, not literally? The question about how many angels could dance on the head of a pin is actually based on Thomas Aquinas, not any Byzantine theologian. And even then, it’s only a Reformation-era caricature of Thomas, as the question he was actually discussing was, “Whether several angels can be at the same time in the same place?” (Summa Theologiae, Question 52, Article 3).
Remember a little over two years ago when I commented that Creepy Joe was a Chinese agent and that America was now a vassal-state of China?
I was roundly ridiculed.
But look what happened today: SecState Antony Blinken had a joint press conference with his Chinese counterpart. He walked it all back regarding Taiwan. (According to the Duran boys, Blinken blinked because the Chinese read him the riot act.)
Then there’s this: the Chinese are building a military base on Cuba.
The bellicose talk between Jan 20, 2021 and today was just Wrestling Mania trash-talk.
I have a strong feeling we are going to be getting a lot of hypocritical U.S rhetoric now that someone who is our “enemy” is going to be building a military base 90 miles from the U.S.
If liberals didn’t have double standards they would have no standards at all.
I have to wonder if China is doing this now because they know America is incredibly weak and we have spent a ton of our weapons stockpile on Ukraine, or, because Russia has shown the U.S/NATO/West to be a paper tiger. Both?
IMHO there’s no way China is building a military site so close to the U.S without having a good reason.
Well, it looks like somebody got to Biden, causing him to crap all over his SecState:
https://sonar21.com/biden-blows-up-blinkens-diplomatic-mission-to-china/
Looking at the Democrat reaction to the censure of Adam Schiff, as well as their general reaction to their war against Trump, I have to say that their pathological lying has driven them to mass insanity. They are crazy and divorced from objective reality due to their ideological delusions.
This is the best explanation for their actions across the board. They don’t care about material reality itself, only about their religious commitment to their twisted, fascist brand of liberalism. Facts don’t matter; it’s all about the narrative. And this is a house built on sand. One can see it clearly in the darkening situation in the Western press regarding the war in the Ukraine. Part of the MSM is still talking down Russia and projecting Ukrainian victory. Part, however, are finally admitting piecemeal that all is not well in Whoville.
It’s really amazing. The hubris, I mean. Biden is senile. His regime is incompetent on most matters. And, like Baghdad Bob, the Democrat narrative is “All is well.” But on another level it is entirely predictable.
By never holding them accountable for their corruption, lies, perversion and general wickedness, the American people have invited the Democrats to push the envelope right over Niagra Falls. Call it just deserts.
While we in the West are discussing various and sundry matters that seem quite important to us, including the cultural wars, immigration, corruption, etc., WWIII is being fought in the Ukraine with as much force on the Western side as the US dares and the West is losing:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N0FSecvqhu8
If you listen to what Ritter is saying in the above program, he is pointing out that what Russia is demonstrating in the Ukraine is that it is superior to the entire combined force of US/NATO. Russia will take it as far as it needs to, but it should be apparent to the US based on their own military internal assessments that they can’t prevail head to head in a conventional war with Russia.
The insane thing is that none of it had to be explicit. America and Europe could have lived in their delusional bubble and made believe they were kings of the world had they not pushed it too far – right up to the Russian border. Russia was forced to demonstrate that it is the most powerful military force on the planet and, but for nukes, could march to the Atlantic if it wished to do so. The only limitation on Russian projection of force is an inability to project power by sea in places they have no intention of going.
This is why I have observed in the past that this is a war for hegemony over Europe between the US and Russia. NSII was so concerning to the US that it had to do something to keep Europe in its orbit as colonies. And that is the true basis of the current conflict.
It only appears for the time being that the US has secured Europe. Economics will dictate the longer term outcome which is that Europe needs Russian energy and, absent the defeat and dismemberment of Russia, Europe will eventually become a collection of Russian colonies (at least in the economic sense). That is why Russia is actually the senior partner in the Sino-Russian Alliance. Russia has taken all the risk on itself by challenging the West directly in the Ukraine. And the fruit of that challenge will be hegemony over Europe.
In all likelihood, the Sino-Russian understanding is that Russia will dominate in Europe and Northern Asia and China will dominate in East Asia. India will likely come along for the ride. Africa and Latin America will be open for all and America will likely be left with the Anglophone sphere.
Of course, anything could happen. But the mere fact that it is moving in this direction should explain why Washington is treating this as a real war against Russia to the extent that it dares to do so.
An interesting analysis from Paul Craig Roberts:
https://www.unz.com/proberts/will-trump-be-assassinated-for-declaring-war-on-the-corrupt-american-establishment/
Basically, Trump is on the road for an easy win BUT the Deep State might intervene (as in what happened at Dealey Plaza in November of 1963).
Personally, I’m keeping my eye on RFK, Jr, to see if he rises in the polls (he’s at 20% now).
Trump still refuses to admit the error of the ‘vaccines’.
George,
It is shaping up to be the perfect storm. RFK, Jr. is a gift from God. He will weaken Biden all the way up to the convention and perhaps beyond. If they strong arm him the way they have done Sanders in the past, his followers my revolt and sit it out.
They’ve locked themselves in. They’re either going with Biden or Harris. Newsome could intervene, but he’s a white man nudging out a black woman. And his baggage is overwhelming in a general election.
As it stands now (and it could change), Dems lose unless they rig it.
He is one who can appeal to the left because of how he presents himself. He’s not a “Trump.” He’s one of the them, meaning people who like the Dem feel, for lack of a better word. However, there is no doubt in my mind that he and Trump are of one mind when it comes to gaining the full support of the American people. Things are going to be changing quickly and like sheep dogs, they will need to maneuver us in the same direction. As different as they are, RFK Jr. and Trump are of one mind, which is not going unnoticed by their detractors. They’re here to represent the American people, not leverage us. I pray for their continued safety. The powers-that-be are probably trying to figure out ways to get rid of them as we speak. Few would argue with this. That this reality would even pop into our heads shows you the kind of trouble we’re in.
“Dems lose unless they rig it.”
Aye. There’s the rub…
What in the world is going on in Russia? Wagoner backed military coup?
Petros,
It was Prigozhin and around four thousand enlisted men, total. Apparently Western intelligence turned him. He started spouting Western propaganda about how the war started and said he wanted to challenge military, but not civilian, leadership. Regardless, it was a feeble attempt at a coup. He had forces on the road to Moscow.
Moscow was more than ready for him. They had Chechens making for Rostov, where Prigozhin was located. They had air assets harassing his column on the road. And they had cut off and built defenses on the road into Moscow.
He had no chance given that all of Russian society rallied around Putin. Lukashenko of Belarus brokered a deal whereby the Wagner forces who followed him would get amnesty and Prigozhin would go into exile in Belarus.
Game over.
Putin shut it down in less than a day and demonstrated that there were no other weak links but Prigozhin. If it had to happen, this is the best possible result.
Belarus, with Russia’s nukes, has to be protected and this was a way they could get the people who could protect them where they needed to be. All the “stuff” in between was probably a distraction. Russia is talking back their ancestral lands as they define it, just like China will take back Taiwan, probably without a whimper because many in Taiwan would be just fine with a country like China protecting them now that China has tuned a corner and aligned itself with Dragon thinking. – Plus, evidence the Titan imploded was discovered on Sunday, but they delayed the news. A false flag, perhaps. Certainly distractions.
“Putin shut it down in less than a day…”
…which proves his strength, not his weakness;
though the Western press will cry otherwise.
The end-result now seems to be that Putin is perceived as being even more powerful than he was.
My prediction? That BRICS and the rest of the non-aligned/anti-Globohomo world will harden their support for Russia.
Putin is a master of judo. Bear that in mind in appreciating how this strange event quickly morphed.
My current working theory is still that Western intelligence got to Prigozhin but Putin got his ducks in a row so fast that Prigozhin saw the futility of it all and folded.
However, there is some traction accumulating to the narrative that this was a mole hunt, so to speak; i.e., a ruse to flush out potential traitors. And in fact there are those who would say that the CIA did try to coopt Prigozhin, even funneling him cash, but that Prigozhin met with Putin very recently and they hammered out a ruse to take advantage of the Western plan in order to stage a “mole hunt”.
Regardless of the truth behind it all, it does not seem to have weakened Putin’s stature at all, perhaps even making him look stronger. The fact that there was no real bloodshed and the drama lasted only a matter of hours makes everyone scratch their head and ask themselves, “What really happened here? Was this some elaborate psyop?”
US Intelligence Knew Of Wagner Plot Days In Advance, Briefed Congress
US intelligence officials knew well in advance that Wagner head Yevgeny Prigozhin was planning to mount an armed rebellion against the Russian military’s top commanders.
Congressional leaders were even briefed days prior to Saturday’s events, after US intelligence reportedly observed the mercenary firm mustering forces and amassing weapons in preparation for possibly making a move against the defense ministry.
Describing the Congressional briefings, The New York Times reported late Saturday that “U.S. spy agencies had indications days earlier that Mr. Prigozhin was planning something and worked to refine that material into a finished assessment, officials said.”
“The information shows that the United States was aware of impending events in Russia, similar to how intelligence agencies had warned in late 2021 that Vladimir V. Putin was planning to invade Ukraine.”
But unlike in the case of those prior invasion warnings of February 2022, the US administration stayed silent ahead of the dramatic Wagner events, likely hoping that it would create destabilization in the Russian state, and negatively impact military operations in Ukraine. So far, there’s been little evidence to suggest the whole short-lived mutiny by Wagner led to significant Ukrainian gains along the frontlines.
The Times explains the rationale of its intel sources as follows:
U.S. officials felt that if they said anything, Mr. Putin could accuse them of orchestrating a coup. And they clearly had little interest in helping Mr. Putin avoid a major, embarrassing fracturing of his support.
While it is not clear exactly when the United States first learned of the plot, intelligence officials conducted briefings on Wednesday with administration and defense officials. On Thursday, as additional confirmation of the plot came in, intelligence officials informed a narrow group of congressional leaders, according to officials familiar with the briefings who spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to speak publicly.
More here: https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/us-intelligence-knew-days-advance-wagner-rebellion-briefed-congress
And this is what’s worrisome about Congress. They either thought, “Let’s let this thing happen and it will bury Russia” or they knew about it because we planned it, which is frankly doubtful, IMO. I don’t think the CIA would have brought Congress into this. Especially Congress! This is an attack on Russia, for pete’s sake!
In any case, they were too stupid not to realize that Russia would have been out in front this thing, too, and would not allow it to happen if it weren’t to their advantage. I still think Russia planned it.
I am seriously worried about this country.
As am I.
There’s nothing wrong with the American people (well, real people anyway, not the Rainbow Marxists). What’s horrible are the neocons, the bastard stepchildren of Leon Trotsky. These people have no introspection or reverse gear. For them, it’s all “full speed ahead!” and then when things blow up in their faces it’s “well, real neoconservatism hasn’t been tried —yet“.
Actually, it’s been weeks since there were stories circulating about some kind of coup, not necessarily around Prigozhin but with seeming foreknowledge that there was a scheme afoot. I’m convinced it was a DS/CIA operation gone awry. Prigozhin was in a position to know that his own statements regarding the commencement of the SMO that he made as he began to undertake his mutiny were false. He asserted that there was no persecution/attack by Ukraine upon the Donbas and no reason for an invasion. But he had been constantly working with people early in the SMO who knew full well of Ukrainian attacks in the Donbas, etc.
He was merely spouting Western propaganda, and one must ask why, given he knew it to be bs. Now, he may have decided that he wanted his eventual regime to be cozier with the West, a sort of revival of the power of the West leaning oligarchs. But it is also entirely possible that he was already working with Western intelligence and they told him to say that stupid crap which would gain him no support in Russia.
The latter makes more sense since his immediate goal should have been to rally support inside Russia and his comments were counterproductive . . . unless he was counting on support from Western intelligence.
Misha, I think what we just witnessed was maskirovka on an unimaginable level. 5D Chess.