As it seems to happen every so often on Monomakhos, tempers seem to flare. The latest brouhaha is about comments made by some (myself included) regarding the imminence of civil conflict.
Now, I want to make something perfectly clear: I am not advocating nor am I agitating for any type of civil conflict. Ever. Period. I can’t make it any more plain than that. Therefore, I reserve to ban anybody who advocates one or insinuates that I do.
That being said, what I wish to be –or not be–regarding the possibility of a fratricidal conflict is beside the point. It is simply beyond any single person’s capabilities to stop historical currents. Indeed, it is impossible if they are inevitable. That being said, I pray that they are not inevitable and that cooler heads will prevail.
Let me stress this: just because I don’t wish there to be civil strife doesn’t mean that there won’t be any. Sad to say, based on the level of mayhem that we saw in Berkeley and in other venues, and the level of hate being directed towards the President, the opposite is more probable than not. Not inevitable mind you, but certainly probable.
A caveat: you will notice that I use the words “civil conflict” and “fratricide”, not “civil war”. For a civil war to erupt, opposing factions in the various branches of the government would have to fight for control of the Federal apparatus. Think of the War of the Roses between the Houses of Lancaster and York. This did not happen during the War Between the States, which was a war for independence. Like the original Thirteen Colonies before them (which had no intention of conquering London and installing Washington as king), the Southern states wished for independence. It was a secession or a rebellion at worst –nothing more.
Nor is secession in the offing. The so-called Calexit movement will go nowhere. Only those snowflakes who live in the bluest counties of California are for it. And most of them have never heard a shot fired in anger. Nor do they know the first thing about agriculture. California imports all of their water from other states. They’d starve to death. And anyway, the wide swaths that make up the red counties of California wouldn’t stand for it. In case you didn’t know, they’ve been agitating for formal separation from Sacramento for many years now. I could easily see them pulling a West Virginia on the would-be secessionists.
But what about all the violent protests outside California? Or the town halls in which Republican Congressmen are feeling heat? The fact is that most of these gatherings have been infiltrated by outside agitators (who in turn are funded by George Soros). This is undeniable. It’s so obvious that even Robert Reich felt the need to go out on a limb and assert that it was secret Trump supporters who were infiltrating the various Antifa groups and causing all the violence. As for the spate of recent town halls, they’re too well-organized and the talking points that one hears are rather tidy if you ask me.
So what are we to expect? How will we know if a real bloodletting is on the horizon or if these are merely the outbursts of bought-and-paid-for malcontents?
I’d say first, look to where the violence is happening. If it stays in cobalt-blue states like California and Oregon, then chances are it’s self-contained and will stay there for the duration of the Trump administration. To be sure, protests will take place in swing states but if pro-Trump protests break out to counter them then they’ll be neutralized and will probably peter out in due time. They won’t break out in red states except for a few purple or blueish cities within them (think Austin, Texas or Birmingham, Alabama; etc.) That being said, violence within blue states may peter out as well. If nothing else, the rioters are merely fowling their own nests. Eventually, even a doofus like Jerry Brown will have to call in the National Guard if another UCBerkeley fracas breaks out.
Second, look to the 2018 elections. If the economy improves and Trump’s executive orders prove to be popular, and if it looks like the GOP is going to pick up another 4 or 5 seats, then the violence will escalate. If for no other reason than to scare Republican voters from showing up at the polls. Conversely, if it looks like the Democrats will pick up a few seats in the House (as is normal in a mid-term election), tempers will flare. I know this sounds counter-intuitive but the anger that feeds the genie of violence will be further inflamed. It’s a vicious cycle.
Third, if some in the GOP get weak in the knees (as I suspect), then this will embolden more violence. Look to the warmonger/cuck wing (e.g. McCain, Graham, Flake and Sasse) to pull the rug out from Trump when things get too hot and heavy. Most assuredly traps lurk everywhere: Lisa Murkowski and Susan Collins care too much about their Establishment credentials than anything else. Whether this violence will spread outside of the blue and/or purple states I can’t say. If it does, then we will know that it is the result of outside agitation. Red states don’t do anti-Americanism and our contempt for the left and all its works runs very deep.
The Democrats you see, are in a pickle. The Establishment wing clearly regrets the Reid (“nuclear option”) rule and the Biden rule (which stated that no Supreme Court vacancy should be filled during an election year). The Democrats were too clever by half when they instituted these parlor tricks and now the GOP is using them with an adeptness that is making heads spin. Cooler heads on the left have admitted that there’s no way they can stop Trump’s appointments. More, they know that obstructionism on Trump’s cabinet appointments is not helping them politically.
Unfortunately, their base is rabid with rage and Chuck Schumer has no choice but to play to their fears. The Democrats in the Establishment have the wolf by the ears and dare not let go. Among the unhinged partisans on the street, the myth that the election was stolen from Clinton has now hardened into granite and it cannot be dislodged from their febrile minds. It’s a powerful hallucinogenic which justifies their rage and the violence that results from it.
In addition, Schumer has bigger fish to fry: if the American political system is too weakened by internal bloodletting, then America will be of no use to Israel. The Establishment knows this and Trump for his part has played the Middle East part of the card game smartly. In smacking down both Israel and Iran, he’s caught all players unaware.
Indeed, he’s played all his cards smartly. Pay no attention to the punditocracy as their credibility is worthless. All of his executive orders stand. Even the one that was stayed by the Ninth Circuit will be overturned. As to its particulars, a better executive order will be crafted and in the end, Trump will get all that he wants. It’s not for nothing that he hanged Andrew Jackson’s portrait in the Oval Office: we are watching a Jacksonian presidency in action. Regardless, word on the street is that Customs officials and Homeland Security are already unofficially enforcing most of Trump’s ban. Massive sweeps of criminal illegal aliens are taking place as we speak.
Of course there’s always events. Know one knows or can predict from whence the next black swan will swim. North Korea could launch a nuke (which will probably fall into the sea), China could stop buying our bonds, or the stock market could crash. Or something we can’t even imagine would happen. Anything’s possible. There are any number of things that could destabilize the Trump administration.
But here’s the thing: there are any number of things that could destabilize the left as well. The stock market can continue to rise. Illegals may continue their exodus from America. Employment in the energy (and other) sectors may rebound. The left has always been unable to comprehend the fact that there are two sides to every story. And they’re certainly incapable of understanding that their violence can turn ordinary people against them. There’s an old saying about actions and unintended consequences; someone needs to teach it to them pretty darn quick.
Consider: does anyone honestly think that there won’t be another terrorist attack on the Homeland? Or that it won’t be perpetrated by some “refugee” from one the seven Islamic states that were identified in the travel ban? What then? How will the Democrats in Congress explain that one? What will happen when the next “American” whose parents immigrated from Afghanistan shoots up a wedding reception or a gay bar? Or another Somali student on a green card drives a truck into a crowd of bystanders? I imagine that Nancy Pelosi and Chuck Schumer will be nowhere to be found when the wolves of the press hound them for answers. All we’ll hear from that quarter will be the sound of crickets. And see the election of eight more GOP Senators and a dozen or more Republican Representatives.
In a diverse society, terrorism is inevitable. This is the one thing that the left will never understand: diversity is not our strength. It is the source of all conflict. Those who voted for Trump understand this on an intuitive level. I dare say that the majority of Americans are repulsed by the glorification of unattractive women wearing a hijab. And yet these are the new mascots of the Democrat Party, displayed prominently at every demonstration. In so doing, the only thing they accomplish is solidifying their anti-American male fides to the broader public. And then they wonder why their coalition of the fringes comes apart come election day.
The fact remains that the political ground shifted in a tectonic manner back in 2016. Both in Great Britain with the Brexit and in America with the election of Donald Trump. And not just in the Anglosphere. Right now it looks like Angela Merkel may lose to a non-entity in Germany and Marine Le Pen will win in France. Le Pen has promised a “Frexit” which if she pulls it off, will permanently destroy the European Union. Once a dam bursts, there is no way to control the damage.
Right wing populism is ascendant all over the globe. We saw intimations of this back in 2014 when Obama tried to derail Bibi Netanyahu’s reelection in Israel. The Israelis lifted a giant middle finger and stuck it in Obama’s face back then. The right/populist shift is not going to change back anytime soon. It’s here to stay. The dam has burst and ordinary people are no longer afraid to call bullshit on the left and its totalitarian pieties.
We must consider something else as well. The incipient rot that was demoralizing our Armed Forces and the thousands of police departments during the Obama regime has been stopped dead in its tracks by Trump’s election. Trump’s massive popularity among policemen and servicemen is palpable. You see, we in the patriotic opposition have a few trump cards of our own. This realizition should cause many opposition leaders to calculate very carefully how much they want to escalate the conflict.
If they’re smart, we may not have to fight after all. But if we have to, we will, if only to protect our lives and those who depend upon us.
There’s an old Roman saying: “Beware the fury of a patient man”. Now would be a good time for the left to learn it.